Ripple and Stellar Surge Following 'Crypto Grim Reaper' Resignation... Is the 'Altcoin Season' Truly Beginning? [Minseung Kang's Altcoin Now]

“Ripple Expected to Continue Rising if It Stably Breaks Through $2.75”

“Further Decline Possible if It Falls Below $2.5”

Following the announcement that Gary Gensler, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chairman known as the 'Crypto Grim Reaper,' will resign in January next year, Ripple (XRP) and other altcoins (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin) have been on a rebound. Market experts have analyzed that the influx of funds and trading volume in the altcoin market is rapidly increasing, raising expectations for a rise.

As of 1:25 PM on the 4th, XRP is trading at $2.5573 on the Binance USDT market, down 7.11% from the previous day. At the same time, Ripple's relative value against Bitcoin (XRP/BTC) fell by 7.05% compared to the previous day.

On this day, Bitcoin (BTC) dominance (the proportion of Bitcoin in the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies) was 55.19%, showing a downward trend over the past week. The recent rise in Bitcoin prices and the decrease in dominance can be interpreted as many altcoins outperforming Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the Kimchi Premium (the price difference between overseas and domestic exchanges) for major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin is recorded at -0.57%. In the domestic market, cryptocurrencies are being traded at slightly lower prices than global prices.

“Ripple Soars on Gensler's Resignation News... Expectations for Spot ETF and Stablecoin Launch Increase”

Since the announcement on the 22nd of last month that the crypto-unfriendly Gary Gensler SEC chairman will resign in January next year, Ripple and several other altcoins, which had been embroiled in securities controversies, have recorded explosive growth rates. Chairman Gensler is set to resign on the day Trump takes office (January 20 next year). Following this news, Ripple surged by 125% up to this day, ranking third in cryptocurrency market capitalization. During the same period, Stellar (XLM) rose by 123%, and Algorand (ALGO) by 172%.

There is growing anticipation that Ripple could launch a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) and its own stablecoin 'RLUSD'. Previously, Bitwise, Canary Capital, 21Shares, and WisdomTree submitted applications for a Ripple spot ETF. There are also projections that U.S. asset management companies could accelerate the issuance of Ripple spot ETFs. Nate Geraci, CEO of ETF Store, said, “The number of Ripple spot ETF issuers (submitting applications) is expected to continue to increase in the future.”

Additionally, on the 1st, Fox Business reported, citing sources, that “the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) is likely to approve Ripple's stablecoin RLUSD soon.” The crypto-specialized media The Crypto Basic predicted, “RLUSD may utilize XRP as its reserve,” adding, “This could have the effect of maintaining the circulating supply of XRP while reducing the total supply.” The launch of Ripple Labs' RLUSD could be a positive factor driving up Ripple's price.

As optimistic forecasts spread, a strong influx of buying pressure for Ripple entered the market. On the 2nd, crypto data analysis firm Santiment revealed on X (formerly Twitter) that “investors holding between 1 million and 10 million Ripple have accumulated 679.1 million XRP over the past three weeks.” The Ripple they accumulated amounts to $1.66 billion (approximately 2.33 trillion won). Santiment added, “As both whale and individual investors have accumulated quantities recently, Ripple's price has reached its highest level in about seven years since 2018.”

Meanwhile, with expectations that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will pursue crypto-friendly policies, there are also observations that the cryptocurrency market will continue its upward trend. On the 2nd, Bloomberg reported, “Trump is expected to create a favorable environment for digital assets,” adding, “Trump has pledged to create crypto-friendly regulatory agencies, and since Trump won the presidential election, the market value of cryptocurrencies has increased by about $1.2 trillion (approximately 1,683 trillion won).”

‘To the Moon’ Ripple Surged Over 360% in a Month... Will It Reach $3?

Market experts predict that if Ripple stably breaks through $2.75, it is likely to continue rising, but if it falls below $2.5, the possibility of further decline increases. On-chain analysts have analyzed that whale investors are recently transferring large amounts of Ripple to exchanges.

Recently, Ripple is catching its breath and challenging additional rises. Ayush Jindal, a researcher at NewsBTC, analyzed, “Ripple is aiming for further rises as it hit a short-term peak at $2.869 and consolidates near $2.7,” adding, “If Ripple breaks through the resistance line of $2.75, it is likely to continue rising. The resistance lines for the rise are located at $2.85, $2.96, and $3.”

The analyst added, “If Ripple fails to break through the resistance line, it could fall to $2.65 and $2.52,” adding, “If it breaks downward through $2.52, it could further decline to $2.45 and $2.3.”

There are also forecasts that Ripple has entered the overbought territory and volatility may increase for the time being. Rakesh Upadhyay, a researcher at Cointelegraph, predicted, “Ripple has increased the likelihood of reaching $3 as it rose through the major resistance of $1.97. It could then test $3.84.”

He added, “Ripple has entered the overbought territory with a sharp rally in recent days, increasing the likelihood of a sharp retracement,” adding, “Investors should be prepared for increased volatility and exercise caution.” If Ripple undergoes a short-term adjustment, the area around $2 is expected to be a key support level.

There are also forecasts that the surged Ripple is expected to see profit-taking from long-term investors. Alex Kuptsikevich, a market analyst at FXPro, analyzed, “XRP has surged 360% over the past 30 days and is flying to the moon,” adding, “Coins like Ripple and Litecoin (LTC) are rising on expectations that the U.S. will ease regulations. In the futures market, a ‘short squeeze’ is occurring, boosting their upward momentum.”

The analyst added, “The current price level seems to be a good point for long-term investors to realize profits and sell their holdings,” adding, “On the other hand, for new entrants and short-term investors, the risk (of entry) could be high.”

Meanwhile, a short squeeze refers to when investors who shorted Bitcoin buy it to cover their short positions or reduce losses as the price rises.

Altcoin Market Sees Significant Increase in Market Cap and Trading Volume... Is the 'Altcoin Season' Starting?

While the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) is catching its breath ahead of $100,000, the trading volume and market capitalization of altcoins (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin) are significantly increasing. As expectations for an altcoin rebound rise, there are projections that the altcoin cycle is imminent.

On the 25th of last month, global cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex stated in a research report, “The total market capitalization of altcoins has continued its upward trend recently, approaching the all-time high of $984 billion (approximately 1,372 trillion won) in May 2021,” adding, “The shift of investment funds from Bitcoin to altcoins is signaling the start of the 'altcoin season.'”

The report continued, “In particular, the market capitalization of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum has surged recently, showing the largest increase since April 2021,” adding, “(With the influx of funds) large-cap 'blue-chip' altcoins like Solana have broken through major resistance levels and set new all-time highs.” The report projected that the momentum of altcoins will be further strengthened as individual investor participation increases recently.

As altcoin trading volume increases significantly, expectations for a rebound are also rising. Crypto data analysis firm Kaiko analyzed, “The proportion of altcoin trading volume in the total cryptocurrency trading volume has soared to 74%, reaching a three-year high,” adding, “Altcoin trading volume began to surge from early November. The cryptocurrency market has been led by Bitcoin, but recently, risk appetite has increased further.”

According to Kaiko, the weekly trading volume of the top 50 altcoins by market capitalization recorded $305 billion (approximately 425 trillion won) in early November, the highest level since October 2021.

Alex Kuptsikevich, a market analyst at FXPro, analyzed, “After Bitcoin underwent a short-term adjustment recently, the rebound of altcoins continued,” adding, “The altcoin season index has also risen sharply as investors move to altcoins like Ethereum.”

On this day, according to Blockchain Center, the 'altcoin season' index, a strong indicator of the altcoin market, rose 23 to 86 in a week, recording the highest level since March. The altcoin season index is considered to have arrived when it surpasses 75.

There are also analyses that the volatility of the altcoin market may intensify for the time being. Crypto strategist Michael van de Poppe predicted, “The cryptocurrency market is entering a bull market. The value of altcoins compared to Bitcoin is likely to continue rebounding,” adding, “The revived momentum could lead to increased volatility.”

Minseung Kang, Bloomingbit Reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io