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“Ripple Expected to Continue Rising if it Stably Breaks Through $2.75”

“Possibility of Further Decline if it Falls Below $2.5”

Photo = Shutterstock

After Gary Gensler, the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), known as the 'Grim Reaper of Cryptocurrency (Virtual Assets),' announced his resignation next January, altcoins (virtual assets other than Bitcoin), including Ripple (XRP), have been on a rebound. Market experts have analyzed that the influx of funds and trading volume in the altcoin market is rapidly increasing, raising expectations for a rise.

As of 1:25 PM on the 4th, XRP is trading at $2.5573 on the Binance USDT market, down 7.11% from the previous day. At the same time, Ripple's relative value (XRP/BTC) compared to Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 7.05% from the previous day.

On this day, Bitcoin (BTC) dominance (the proportion of Bitcoin in the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies) is at 55.19%, showing a downward trend over the past week. The recent rise in Bitcoin prices and the resulting decrease in dominance can be interpreted as many altcoins performing better than Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the Kimchi Premium (the price difference between overseas exchanges and domestic exchanges) of major virtual assets, including Bitcoin, is recorded at -0.57%. In the domestic market, virtual assets are being traded at slightly lower prices than global prices.

“Ripple Soars on Gensler's Resignation News…Expectations for Spot ETF and Stablecoin Launch Increase”

Photo = Gary Gensler X Capture

Since Gary Gensler, the SEC chairman who was unfriendly to virtual assets, announced on the 22nd of last month that he would resign next January, several altcoins, including Ripple, which had been embroiled in securities controversy, have recorded explosive growth rates. Chairman Gensler is scheduled to resign on the day Trump takes office (January 20 next year). Since the news was delivered, Ripple has surged 125% to date and ranked third in the market capitalization of virtual assets. During the same period, Stellar (XLM) rose 123%, and Algorand (ALGO) rose 172%.

Expectations are growing that Ripple may launch a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) and its own stablecoin 'RLUSD'. Previously, Bitwise, Canary Capital, 21Shares, and WisdomTree submitted applications for Ripple spot ETFs. There is also a forecast that the issuance of Ripple spot ETFs by U.S. asset management companies could accelerate. Nate Geraci, CEO of ETF Store, said, “It is expected that the number of Ripple spot ETF issuers (submitting applications) will continue to increase in the future.”

In addition, on the 1st, U.S. economic media Fox Business, citing sources, reported that “the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) is likely to approve Ripple's stablecoin RLUSD soon.” The crypto-specialized media The Crypto Basic predicted, “RLUSD is likely to utilize XRP as its own reserve,” adding, “This will have the effect of maintaining the circulating supply of XRP while reducing the total supply.” The launch of Ripple Labs' RLUSD could be a favorable factor in boosting Ripple's price.

Both whale investors and individual investors have accumulated a large amount of Ripple over the past three weeks / Photo = Santiment X Capture

As optimistic prospects spread, a strong influx of buying pressure for Ripple entered the market. On the 2nd, crypto data analysis company Santiment announced on X (formerly Twitter) that “investors holding between 1 million and 10 million Ripple have accumulated 679.1 million XRP over the past three weeks.” The Ripple they accumulated amounts to $1.66 billion (about 2.33 trillion won). Santiment added, “Recently, both whale investors and individual investors have accumulated quantities, and Ripple's price has reached its highest level in about seven years since 2018.”

Meanwhile, as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is expected to implement crypto-friendly policies, there are also observations that the cryptocurrency market will continue to rise. On the 2nd, Bloomberg reported, “Trump is expected to create a favorable environment for digital assets,” adding, “Trump has declared that he will create a crypto-friendly regulatory agency, and since Trump won the presidential election, the market value of cryptocurrencies has increased by about $1.2 trillion (about 1,683 trillion won).”

‘To the Moon’ Ripple, Up Over 360% in a Month…Will it Reach $3 at This Rate

Photo = Shutterstock

Market experts predict that Ripple is likely to continue rising if it stably breaks through $2.75, but if it falls below $2.5, the possibility of further decline increases. On-chain analysts have analyzed that whale investors are recently transferring large amounts of Ripple to exchanges.

Recently, Ripple is taking a breather and challenging additional rises. Ayush Jindal, a researcher at NewsBTC, said, “Ripple hit a short-term high at $2.869 and is consolidating near $2.7, aiming for further rises,” adding, “If Ripple breaks through the resistance line of $2.75, it is likely to continue rising. The resistance lines for the rise are located at $2.85, $2.96, and $3.”

The analyst added, “If Ripple fails to break through the resistance line, it could fall to $2.65 and $2.52,” adding, “If it breaks downward through $2.52, it could fall further to $2.45 and $2.3.”

There are also forecasts that Ripple has entered the overbought territory and volatility may increase for the time being. Rakesh Upadhyay, a researcher at Cointelegraph, predicted, “Ripple has increased the possibility of reaching $3 by breaking through the main resistance of $1.97. It could test $3.84 afterward.”

He added, “Ripple has entered the overbought territory with a sharp rally in recent days, and the possibility of a sharp retracement has increased,” adding, “Investors should be prepared for increased volatility and be cautious.” If Ripple undergoes a short-term adjustment, the area around $2 is expected to be a key support level.

There are also forecasts that the soaring Ripple is expected to see profit-taking by long-term investors. Alex Kuptsikevich, a market analyst at FXPro, analyzed, “XRP has soared 360% over the past 30 days, and the price is flying to the moon,” adding, “Coins such as Ripple and Litecoin (LTC) are rising on expectations that the U.S. will ease regulations. A ‘short squeeze’ in the futures market is boosting their upward momentum.”

The analyst added, “The current price level seems to be a good point for long-term investors to realize profits and sell their holdings,” adding, “On the other hand, for new entrants and short-term investors, the risk (of entry) may be high.”

Meanwhile, a short squeeze refers to when investors who have shorted Bitcoin buy it to cover their short positions or reduce losses when the price of Bitcoin rises.

Altcoin Market, Market Cap and Trading Volume Surge…Has the ‘Altcoin Season’ Begun

While the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) is taking a breather ahead of $100,000, the trading volume and market capitalization of altcoins (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin) are increasing significantly. As expectations for a rebound in altcoins rise, there are forecasts that the altcoin cycle is imminent.

The market capitalization of virtual assets excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum is surging. / Data = Bitfinex

On the 25th of last month, global cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex stated in a research report, “The total market capitalization of altcoins continues to rise recently, approaching the all-time high of $984 billion (about 1,372 trillion won) in May 2021,” adding, “The shift of investment funds from Bitcoin to altcoins is signaling the start of the 'altcoin season.'”

The report continued, “In particular, the market capitalization of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum has surged recently, showing the largest increase since April 2021,” adding, “(With the inflow of funds) large-cap 'blue-chip' altcoins such as Solana have broken through major resistance levels and reached all-time highs.” The report predicted that the momentum of altcoins will be further strengthened as the participation of individual investors increases recently.

Altcoin Trading Volume / Data = Kaiko

As altcoin trading volume increases significantly, expectations for a rebound are also rising. Crypto data analysis company Kaiko analyzed, “The proportion of altcoin trading volume in total crypto trading volume has soared to 74%, reaching a three-year high,” adding, “Altcoin trading volume began to surge from early November. The crypto market has been led by Bitcoin, but recently, risk appetite has increased further.”

According to Kaiko, the weekly trading volume of the top 50 altcoins by market capitalization recorded $305 billion (about 425 trillion won) in early November, the highest level since October 2021.

Alex Kuptsikevich, a market analyst at FXPro, analyzed, “After Bitcoin took a short-term adjustment recently, the rebound of altcoins continued,” adding, “The altcoin season index also surged significantly as investors moved to altcoins such as Ethereum.”

On this day, according to Blockchain Center, the ‘altcoin season’ index, a strong indicator of the altcoin market, rose 23 to 86 in a week, recording the highest level since March. The altcoin season index is considered to have arrived when it surpasses 75.

There is also an analysis that the volatility of the altcoin market may intensify for the time being. Crypto strategist Michael van de Poppe predicted, “The crypto market is entering a bull market. The value of altcoins compared to Bitcoin is likely to continue rebounding,” but also warned, “The revived momentum could lead to increased volatility.”

Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io