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After reaching an all-time high of $109,000 in January, the major cryptocurrency Bitcoin is currently consolidating at around $97,000.

While the possibility of a technical correction looms in the air, the halving cycle is not yet over.

[Halving Cycle Assessment] Looking at the 2020 Bitcoin halving and the subsequent spot price peak,

this asset rose a total of 686% from May 11, 2020, to November 8, 2021.

Between the most recent halving on April 20, 2024, and the recent ATH, Bitcoin has only risen 63%.

While Bitcoin's power law model and the law of diminishing returns suggest more moderate future price performance,

the 63% increase reflects an incomplete halving cycle with significant upside potential.

[MSTR as a Leading Indicator] Strategy(MSTR, formerly MicroStrategy) continues its buying program into early 2025,

recently adding 7,633 bitcoins to its balance sheet and currently holding a total of 478,740 units.

MSTR's buying program reflects institutional demand and serves as a leading indicator for the underlying asset (Bitcoin) itself.

Strategy's purchases are typically cyclical, so more buying indicates a positive trajectory for the spot price.

Conversely, if MSTR's buying potentially diminishes, the market will weaken.

[Future Outlook] So what should we expect in the short term? Despite the continuing halving cycle,

we anticipate the May sell effect, sideways movement in summer, and rising price levels until the final quarter.

Positive Q4 seasonality has been repeated in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024.

A deeper correction may occur in a few months or a year. Macro events such as a Ukraine ceasefire could

significantly boost risk assets, including Bitcoin.