PROD Excerpt_005_"Bitcoin to benefit this year as liquidity loosens and a rally begins" - revision in progress
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Summary
- It said expectations are growing that Bitcoin will benefit this year as the Fed eases monetary policy and supplies global liquidity.
- It reported that, alongside low interest rates and clearer regulation, expanding participation by institutional investors will drive years of strong growth in the digital-asset market.
- It noted a cautious view that, with rate cuts and a monetary-policy pivot potentially delayed, Bitcoin will show lower volatility and a steady upward trend rather than an explosive surge.
As the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) eases monetary policy and injects liquidity into global markets, expectations are growing that Bitcoin will be a beneficiary this year. Analysts say risk appetite for assets that had been dampened by a tightening stance is likely to return.
On the 1st (local time), Bill Barhydt, chief executive officer (CEO) of Abra, said in an interview with Schwab Network that “the Fed is already laying the groundwork for an accommodative policy,” as he put it.
Barhydt described the Fed’s recent moves as a “light version of quantitative easing (QE).” He said, “The Fed has begun buying bonds on its own to support demand for U.S. Treasuries,” adding that “next year, demand for Treasuries is likely to fall as interest rates decline, and that combination is a positive signal for all assets, including Bitcoin.”
Beyond liquidity injections, he cited greater regulatory clarity in the U.S. and increased participation by institutional investors as additional upside drivers. Barhydt said, “As low rates and clearer regulation converge, the digital-asset market will post strong growth for years,” and he expects this upswing not to be a one-off cycle.
Still, some caution that it is too early to expect sharp rate cuts immediately. According to CME FedWatch, traders see a 14.9% probability of a rate cut at the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. That is down sharply from 23% on Nov. 1, suggesting that a monetary-policy pivot could be delayed beyond market expectations.
A more cautious view is also emerging that Bitcoin will trace a steady upward trajectory rather than a blowout surge. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer (CIO) at Bitwise, said in an interview last week that “Bitcoin will deliver strong but gradual gains over the next 10 years.” He added that “rather than the explosive returns seen in past cycles, investors should expect lower volatility and more stable performance.”
