PROD TEST News - Revision 2
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Summary
- Analysts said that even if Bitcoin falls to $74,000, concerns over Strategy’s financial health and bankruptcy risk are an overreading.
- They noted that with 672,497 bitcoins and $2.188 billion in cash and cash equivalents, Strategy is seen as unlikely to face a near-term liquidity crisis relative to $8.24 billion in debt.
- However, they flagged medium- to long-term headwinds including a review of MSCI index-inclusion rules, JPMorgan’s margin requirement hike to 95%, and dilution risk from repeated share issuance to buy Bitcoin.
Concerns were raised that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) could see its financial health wobble if Bitcoin falls to $74,000, but leading analysts drew a line, saying bankruptcy fears are an overreading.
According to a report by NewsBTC on the 31st (local time), an analyst at Bull Theory said that even if Bitcoin drops to $74,000—often cited as a key support level—Strategy is unlikely to face a financial crisis. They argued that scenarios circulating in parts of the market involving “forced selling” and a “liquidity crunch” fail to adequately reflect the company’s financial structure.
Strategy currently holds about 672,497 bitcoins, worth roughly $58.7 billion at market prices. By contrast, the company’s total debt stands at about $8.24 billion. Bull Theory explained that even if Bitcoin falls to $74,000, the value of the firm’s Bitcoin holdings would still be about $49.76 billion, far exceeding its debt—meaning the structure does not point to insolvency.
Analysts also stressed that Strategy does not use margin trading like a hedge fund. The company’s Bitcoin is not pledged as collateral, so price declines would not trigger margin calls or forced liquidations. Most of Strategy’s borrowings are unsecured convertible notes, meaning bondholders cannot demand Bitcoin sales solely due to a price drop.
On the liquidity front, they said near-term pressure appears limited. Strategy holds about $2.188 billion in cash and cash equivalents—enough to cover roughly $750 million to $800 million in annual dividend and interest payments for about 32 months. Analysts said this lowers the risk of a near-term funding squeeze.
Still, external factors were cited behind the recent weakness in Strategy shares. Since October, concerns have spread that index-tracking funds could sell after MSCI began considering a potential rule change that would allow it to exclude companies holding more than 50% of their assets in Bitcoin from its indexes. A final decision on the agenda item is scheduled for January 15, 2026.
In addition, JPMorgan raised margin requirements for trading Strategy shares from 50% to 95%, prompting some investors to reduce positions—an adjustment that analysts said added selling pressure and weighed on the stock.
Bull Theory, however, pointed to “dilution risk” as a long-term factor to watch. Strategy has repeatedly issued new shares to fund additional Bitcoin purchases, and continued equity issuance during downturns could erode existing shareholders’ value. It also warned that if the stock-to-net asset value (NAV) ratio falls below 1, further capital raising could become constrained—adding a medium- to long-term overhang.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin was trading around $89,200 as of the time of writing, up about 1.5% over the past 24 hours. Strategy shares also rose about 1.25% over the same period, hovering around $157 per share.
