"Bitcoin to start rally this year as liquidity is unleashed"
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Summary
- Expectations are growing that global liquidity will be supplied as the U.S. Federal Reserve adopts a more accommodative stance, and that Bitcoin will benefit this year.
- Barhydt said the Fed’s Treasury purchases, potential rate declines, greater U.S. regulatory clarity, and broader participation by institutional investors are key drivers for gains in digital assets, including Bitcoin.
- According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a January rate cut is just 14.9%, and experts caution that Bitcoin is likely to post a stable upward trend with low volatility.
Expectations are growing that Bitcoin will benefit this year as liquidity flows into global markets amid the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) shift toward easier monetary policy. Analysts say risk appetite for assets that had been damped by the tightening cycle is likely to return.
On Jan. 1 (local time), Bill Barhydt, CEO of Abra, said in an interview with Schwab Network that “the Fed is already laying the groundwork for an easing stance.”
Barhydt described the Fed’s recent moves as a “lite version of quantitative easing (QE).” He said, “The Fed has begun buying bonds on its own to support demand for U.S. Treasuries,” adding that “next year, Treasury demand is likely to fall alongside rate cuts, and that combination is a positive signal for all assets, including Bitcoin.”
Beyond liquidity provision, he also cited greater regulatory clarity in the U.S. and increased participation by institutional investors as additional tailwinds. “As low rates and clearer regulation converge, the digital-asset market will post strong growth for years,” he said, arguing that the current upswing is unlikely to be a one-off cycle.
Still, some caution that it is too early to expect rapid rate cuts. According to CME FedWatch, traders see the probability of a rate cut at the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at 14.9%. That is a sharp drop from 23% on Nov. 1, suggesting the market’s anticipated policy pivot could be delayed.
A more cautious view has also emerged that Bitcoin may trend higher steadily rather than spike explosively. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer (CIO) at Bitwise, said in an interview last week, “Bitcoin will see strong but gradual gains over the next 10 years.” He added, “Investors should expect lower volatility and steadier performance than the explosive returns seen in past cycles.”
