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Summary
- Analysts said that even if Bitcoin falls to $74,000, concerns about Strategy’s financial health and bankruptcy risk are an overreach.
- They noted that Strategy holds about 672,497 bitcoins and $58.7 billion in assets, against $8.24 billion in debt and $2.188 billion in cash-like assets, suggesting a near-term liquidity crisis is unlikely.
- However, they pointed to medium- to long-term headwinds including potential removal from MSCI indexes, JPMorgan’s higher margin requirements, and dilution risk from repeated share issuance to finance additional Bitcoin purchases.
Concerns have been raised that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) could see its financial health shaken if Bitcoin falls to $74,000, but leading analysts drew a line, saying bankruptcy fears are an overreach.
According to a NewsBTC report on the 31st (local time), an analyst at Bull Theory said that even if Bitcoin drops to $74,000—often cited as a key support level—the likelihood of Strategy falling into financial distress is low. They argued that the “forced selling” and “liquidity crisis” scenarios circulating in parts of the market fail to adequately reflect the company’s financial structure.
Strategy currently holds about 672,497 bitcoins, worth roughly $58.7 billion at market value. By contrast, the company’s total debt stands at about $8.24 billion. Bull Theory said that even if Bitcoin declines to $74,000, the value of its bitcoin holdings would still be about $49.76 billion—far exceeding its debt—meaning the company is not structurally positioned to become insolvent.
Analysts also emphasized that Strategy does not use margin trading like a hedge fund. The bitcoin it holds is not pledged as collateral, so a price drop would not trigger margin calls or forced liquidations. They added that most of Strategy’s borrowings are unsecured convertible bonds, meaning bondholders cannot demand bitcoin sales solely because prices fall.
On liquidity, analysts said near-term pressure is limited. Strategy has about $2.188 billion in cash and cash equivalents—enough to cover roughly $750 million to $800 million in annual dividend and interest payments for about 32 months. They said this reduces the risk of a short-term cash crunch.
Still, external factors were cited as a backdrop to the recent weakness in Strategy’s share price. Since October, MSCI has been reviewing the possibility of a rule change that would allow it to remove from its indexes companies that hold more than 50% of their assets in Bitcoin, fueling concerns over selling by passive index-tracking funds. A final decision on the proposal is scheduled for Jan. 15, 2026.
In addition, JPMorgan raised margin requirements for trading Strategy shares to 95% from 50%, prompting some investors to reduce positions. Analysts said the resulting selling pressure weighed on the stock.
Even so, Bull Theory flagged “dilution risk” as a key longer-term factor to watch. Strategy has repeatedly issued new shares to fund additional Bitcoin purchases, and continued capital raises during downturns could erode the value of existing shareholders. In particular, they warned that if the stock’s price-to-net-asset-value (NAV) ratio falls below 1, additional fundraising could be constrained—posing a medium- to long-term headwind.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin was trading around $89,200 at the time of writing, up about 1.5% over the past 24 hours. Strategy shares also rose about 1.25% over the same period, hovering around $157 per share.
