Bitcoin stuck in a range, Ethereum holding up… Crypto market faces the ‘Trump variable’ [Lee Su-hyeon’s Coin Radar] Revised 7

<Lee Su-hyeon’s Coin Radar> is a weekly column that tracks trends in the cryptoasset (cryptocurrency) market and explains what’s behind them. Going beyond a simple list of prices, it provides a multi-dimensional analysis of global macro issues and investor positioning, offering insights to gauge where the market may be headed.

Major coins

1. Bitcoin (BTC)

Even in the new year, Bitcoin remains without a clear direction, continuing to move sideways. Over the past two weeks, the price has been trapped in the $87,000–$88,000 range, a textbook box-range market. As of Jan. 2 on CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is trading around $88,000.

On-chain data suggests the structural backdrop to this stagnation is relatively clear. According to CryptoQuant, the 30-day moving average of the MVRV metric—market value relative to realized value—stands at 1.55, still below 1.77, which has served as a bull-market benchmark over the past decade. That implies it is hard to conclude the market has returned to a full-fledged bullish structure.

Investors’ profit-and-loss positioning is also weighing on Bitcoin. Short-term holders’ average cost basis is around $103,000, leaving many in loss territory. Meanwhile, the break-even level for long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for six months or more is formed near $98,000, meaning that even if a rebound emerges, breakeven selling can easily come out. Another analysis suggests about 60% of realized capital supply is sitting at a loss.

In this environment, the biggest variables the market is watching this year are policy and politics. In particular, whether the U.S. ‘Clarity Act’ ultimately passes is seen as a key issue. If enacted, the bill—which clearly delineates whether cryptoassets are securities or commodities and clarifies regulatory jurisdiction—could provide a rationale for banks and major institutions that have been on the sidelines to enter the market. Citigroup said clearer regulation could act as a catalyst for increased inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Political factors also matter. Depending on the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections slated for November, it could determine whether momentum behind pro-crypto policies is sustained. There are warnings that if Republicans lose control of both chambers, the current pro-crypto stance could weaken.

Views on Bitcoin this year diverge sharply. A CryptoQuant contributor at Exwin Japan Research warned that “if a recession materializes in earnest, Bitcoin could fall below $80,000 and, in an extreme case, even slip into the $50,000 range.” By contrast, JPMorgan and Citigroup pointed to an improved regulatory backdrop and broader institutional adoption as the basis for medium- to long-term upside potential to $140,000–$180,000. Overall, many say this is a phase that requires patience rather than a definitive call on direction.

2. Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum has recovered $3,000 as of Jan. 2 on CoinMarketCap, showing a relatively resilient performance among major coins. However, on-chain data is flashing mixed signals at the same time.

First, exchange inflows have surged. Over the month of December, about 8.5 million ETH flowed into Binance, and exchange balances increased to 4.17 million ETH. Rising exchange inflows are interpreted as a near-term headwind given they can turn into selling at any time. In particular, given Binance’s high share of derivatives trading, the possibility of heightened volatility is also on the table.

By contrast, network activity is robust. According to Etherscan, daily transactions on the Ethereum mainnet recently hit a record high of 2.12 million, while average fees fell to around 17 cents. Compared with May 2022, when fees per transaction exceeded $200, the structural improvement is clear.

The market is watching Ethereum upgrades scheduled for this year. The ‘Glamsterdam’ upgrade slated for the first half is expected to lift scalability and efficiency by a notch through parallel execution and improvements to the fee structure. It is an upgrade more focused on laying the groundwork for expanding the DeFi and Web3 ecosystem than providing a short-term price catalyst.

In addition, expectations for growth in real-world asset tokenization (RWA) and stablecoins are cited as medium- to long-term strengths. In its ‘2026 Digital Asset Outlook’ report, CoinShares projected that the RWA market’s growth will continue this year, emphasizing that tokenization of large assets such as U.S. Treasuries is concentrated on the Ethereum network. A representative example is JPMorgan’s launch of an Ethereum-based tokenized money market fund. Stablecoins are also expected to surpass $500 billion in market size by the end of the year, with more than half already transacting on the Ethereum network.

In the near term, whether $2,760 holds as support is key. Crypto-focused outlet BeInCrypto suggested that if the price falls below that level, it could decline to $2,650–$2,400, and in the worst case down to $1,320. Conversely, it said a break above $3,470 is needed for a bullish reversal, and that a strong recovery phase is only expected above $4,770.

XRP posted the weakest performance among major coins this week. Even as Bitcoin and Ethereum staged modest rebounds, it failed to keep pace, losing the $1.90 level and currently hovering around $1.86–$1.87.

Behind the weakness is an increase in exchange inflows. According to CryptoQuant, XRP inflows into Binance have surged since mid-December. Since the 15th of last month, daily inflows increased from at least 35 million XRP to as much as 116 million XRP. A CryptoQuant contributor analyzed that “profit-taking and stop-loss selling may have occurred simultaneously over the past two weeks,” adding that “if exchange inflows remain elevated, a meaningful rebound will not be easy.”

Network activity is also slowing. Analyst Ali Martinez said daily active addresses for XRP fell from 46,000 to around 38,500, judging that the bearish trend is evident. This is interpreted as a sign that actual user participation and interest are declining.

Still, the medium- to long-term narrative remains intact. Around the XRP Ledger (XRPL), stablecoins, asset tokenization, and institutional DeFi functions are expanding, and an institutional lending protocol is also scheduled for launch in the first quarter of this year.

In the near term, defending $1.85 is pivotal. CoinDesk analyzed that if it fails to hold that level, it could fall to $1.77–$1.80. Conversely, if it recovers $1.87 and then stabilizes above $1.90, the assessment is that it could retest the $1.95–$2.00 zone.

Long-term forecasts are mixed. Standard Chartered said that “if the regulatory environment is maintained or improves, XRP could rise as high as $8 this year.” However, it also analyzed that “the most likely outcome is for the 2026 price to remain in the $1.04–$3.40 range,” adding that “the pace of ETF inflows and the recovery of global investment demand will determine the realized path.”

Issue coins

1. Binance Coin (BNB)

Binance Coin has been relatively resilient even as the broader market undergoes a pullback. It has posted the highest gain among top market-cap coins since the start of the year, and even after the latest correction it is trading in the $860–$870 range.

The backdrop is easing regulatory risk. After President Trump’s inauguration, a more pro-crypto stance in the U.S. has strengthened, quickly reducing uncertainty surrounding Binance.

In particular, the official withdrawal of the lawsuit with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in May last year had a decisive impact on investor sentiment. In addition, the pardon issue involving former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao in October last year also acted as a catalyst for the price rise.

Technically, attention is focused on the ‘Fermi’ hard fork scheduled for the 14th. Block production speed will be shortened from 750 milliseconds to 250 milliseconds, and indexing technology will also be introduced to quickly query only the necessary data. This is assessed as an infrastructure improvement aimed at high-frequency financial services and institutional demand.

In the near term, whether it breaks above $870 is important. If that zone is converted into support, room for further upside opens up, but if it breaks down, the assessment is that the possibility of a correction must also be kept in view.