[Negative News] Trump warns India: "Tariffs will be raised if you don’t stop buying Russian crude"

U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that he could move to raise tariffs if India continues purchasing Russian crude oil, fueling concerns that significant uncertainty is spreading across the global energy and trade order.

According to Watcher Guru on the 5th (local time), President Trump publicly pressured India, saying, "If you don’t stop importing Russian crude, I will raise trade tariffs." Going beyond a mere diplomatic remark, this immediately rattled markets by signaling the possibility of trade retaliation directly targeting major emerging economies.

In particular, reports that the U.S. government is pushing legislation that would allow tariffs to be imposed on countries buying Russian crude have prompted assessments that energy trade is entering a phase of being explicitly repurposed as a geopolitical sanctions tool. A U.S. government official also said, "We plan to submit to Congress a bill granting the U.S. president the authority to impose tariffs on countries that import Russian crude," further increasing the likelihood of policy implementation.

Markets widely see that if such measures materialize, in the very short term they could trigger greater volatility in international oil prices, instability in emerging-market financial markets, and a global equity risk-off move. With large energy importers such as India coming under pressure, concerns are also being raised that global crude supply chains and pricing mechanisms could be jolted sharply.

Over the medium term, there is a high likelihood that U.S.-led tariff pressure could spread into broader international trade disputes. If India moves to retaliate, trade frictions between the U.S. and India could intensify, likely leading to a reshaping of global supply chains and a contraction in trade. Some also warn it could become a structural drag across energy, commodities, and emerging-market currency markets.

Over the long term, the remarks are being viewed as a serious risk in that they could undermine the principle of depoliticizing international energy markets and become a turning point that entrenches crude trading as a tool of diplomacy and sanctions. This could push countries to shift energy procurement strategies in a more closed and bloc-based direction, potentially weakening the efficiency and stability of global markets at a fundamental level.

Meanwhile, President Trump said about Russia and Ukraine that "an agreement will be reached before too long," but he did not present a clear roadmap, saying of any specific negotiating timeline that "there is no deadline." Markets assess that this is hard to view as a substantive signal of reduced geopolitical risk and instead a remark that prolongs uncertainty.

Experts warn that it is difficult to rule out the possibility that these remarks and the policy direction could evolve from a short-term shock → medium-term trade conflict → long-term instability in the global order, and that for the time being they could exert strong downward pressure across energy, commodities, and emerging-market assets.