[Negative News] “U.S. airstrikes could give China a pretext to invade Taiwan” … Is U.S.-China hegemonic rivalry widening? [Analysis+]

As U.S. airstrikes on Venezuela and the sudden arrest of President Nicolás Maduro are being interpreted as a military and geopolitical warning message squarely aimed at China, concerns are rapidly growing that the global struggle for dominance could escalate into an uncontrollable phase of military confrontation beyond a mere regime-change operation in Latin America.

On the 3rd (local time), Reuters and the UK’s Guardian said the U.S. invasion of Venezuela and the ouster of its government effectively shattered the taboo against ‘armed intervention’ in the international order, arguing that this could, paradoxically, increase the likelihood that China will move to invade Taiwan. The assessment is that U.S.-China frictions—previously centered on trade, tariffs and technological primacy—have reached a dangerous turning point that could push the rivalry into a stage of outright military confrontation.

Reuters noted that the episode could sharply weaken the international ‘deterrence norms’ that have constrained China and Russia. It warned in particular that “if aggressive military intervention is accepted as precedent, the threshold for armed invasion could fall markedly in other regions, including Taiwan.” This could act as a фактор that spreads acute uncertainty and fear across global financial and commodities markets in the very near term.

Given China’s deep involvement in key strategic assets across South America—Venezuelan oil, Peruvian ports, Bolivian lithium, Brazilian soybeans and Chilean copper—Washington’s action is being read as an attempt to directly block China’s global resources and supply-chain strategy, not merely a regional intervention. Analysts say it is a clear signal that U.S.-China tensions are expanding from economics → diplomacy → military → a war for resource control.

Geoffrey Robertson, a UK international law expert and former judge at a UN war crimes tribunal, told the Guardian: “The most obvious result of this invasion is that China has gained a rationale and an opportunity to invade Taiwan,” adding that “in an international environment that has effectively tolerated Trump’s invasion of Venezuela and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this may be the most advantageous time for China.”

At a press conference, President Donald Trump said U.S. oil companies would enter Venezuela to expand crude output, with the U.S. military playing a physical role—comments interpreted as an explicit declaration of a new hegemonic strategy that fuses resource acquisition with military intervention. Markets are describing it as one of the most aggressive examples of resource-driven military intervention since the Cold War.

Venezuela holds 303 billion barrels—about 17% of the world’s proven oil reserves—and China is its largest importer, bringing in more than 600,000 barrels a day, as well as its largest creditor with roughly $10 billion in claims. If the U.S. takes control of Venezuela and directly intervenes in its oil exports and the structure for repaying loans to China, it could be a drastic move that simultaneously threatens China’s energy security and financial interests.

Experts say they cannot rule out a worst-case scenario in which, in the very near term, international oil prices surge and global equities plunge; in the medium term, the risk of U.S.-China clashes over resources, finance and military power becomes structurally entrenched; and in the long term, the likelihood of multipolar military disputes—including across the Taiwan Strait—becomes a persistent reality.

Trump’s remark that “we have gone beyond the Monroe Doctrine” and that “U.S. hegemony in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again” is also being taken by markets as a declaration that the U.S. will prioritize power politics over international norms. Analysts say this could severely undermine the predictability of the global order and, over time, seriously destabilize the world economy and the security environment.