[Negative News] "Strategy shares 'halve' over the past year…crisis likely to persist into 2026"

Concerns are rapidly spreading that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the publicly listed company with the world’s largest Bitcoin (BTC) holdings, could face an unprecedented, multifaceted crisis as it enters the new year. The market view is that Strategy has moved beyond simple share-price weakness and has entered a phase in which structural risks are coming to the fore in earnest.

According to cryptocurrency outlet BeInCrypto on the 2nd (Korea time), Strategy’s shares plunged about 49% last year. This is seen as more than a routine pullback—a signal that investor confidence is eroding sharply.

A key driver of the slump is weak Bitcoin returns. Bitcoin posted an annual return of -5.7% last year, falling well short of expectations. As a result, Strategy—which has pursued a near ‘all-in’ approach to Bitcoin—now faces a double burden, with both asset value and its share price under pressure.

Strategy currently holds about 672,497 bitcoins, equivalent to roughly 3.2% of total Bitcoin supply. However, the market increasingly argues that such massive holdings are turning into ‘concentration risk’ rather than a strength. In fact, Strategy’s market capitalization is about $46 billion, well below the value of its Bitcoin holdings (about $59 billion). This suggests market participants are applying a steep discount to the company’s valuation to reflect Bitcoin price volatility, its leverage structure, governance risks, and other factors.

In the very near term, if Bitcoin prices fall further or volatility increases, there is growing concern that Strategy’s shares could again show a leveraged effect—declining more than spot Bitcoin. In particular, during Bitcoin pullbacks, corporate value can deteriorate rapidly, likely reinforcing investors’ risk-off sentiment.

Over the medium term, the possibility of exclusion from MSCI indexes could become a serious burden for Strategy. MSCI is reviewing a plan to classify companies whose digital-asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets as ‘funds’; if Strategy breaches that threshold, it could be removed from major indexes. In that case, passive outflows and institutional selling pressure could occur simultaneously, raising the likelihood that structural downward pressure will be imposed on the share price, according to the analysis. MSCI’s final decision is scheduled for Jan. 15.

Over the long term, more fundamental questions are also being raised about Strategy’s business model itself. A structure in which corporate value depends excessively on Bitcoin price appreciation without improvement in the core business is viewed as severely undermining sustainability in a prolonged Bitcoin downturn or range-bound market. With Bitcoin allocation excessively high, the current structure is considered highly vulnerable to tighter regulation, changes in accounting standards, and shifts in index-inclusion criteria—raising the likelihood that long-term risks could become a persistent feature.

Experts believe it will not be easy for Strategy to break out of a negative trajectory of near-term volatility expansion → medium-term outflow pressure → long-term revalidation of its business model. The market is also warning that Strategy may no longer be a beneficiary of a ‘Bitcoin leveraged play,’ but could instead become a representative case in which risks are amplified during a Bitcoin downcycle.