[Analysis] “Bitcoin and Ethereum rise in tandem…crypto market may be entering a new phase”

With Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) rising in tandem since the start of the year, a potential phase shift in the crypto (digital asset) market is being raised as geopolitical variables and options-market flows also come into play.

On the 5th (local time), QCP Capital said in a report that “the crypto market, which had remained range-bound in December last year, attempted a clear upside break in the early-year Asian session, with Bitcoin and Ethereum rising together. This unfolded in an environment where equity markets strengthened and oil prices fell at the same time after the U.S. arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.”

The report interpreted this move not as mere coincidence but as an early signal of a ‘regime shift’ in how the crypto market trades. It explained that as the impact of year-end tax loss harvesting faded and optionality around policy variables came back into focus, crypto began to respond in the same direction as traditional risk assets such as equities. This suggests that the crypto market’s macro sensitivity stepped up a notch starting in early 2026.

The Venezuela factor was cited as an additional indirect catalyst. While the disinflationary effect from lower oil prices is relatively clear, the possibility that Venezuela may have been secretly stockpiling Bitcoin was seen as a more complex variable. QCP said, “The story about Venezuela’s Bitcoin stockpile remains unverified,” but added that “if seized Bitcoin is held rather than sold into the market, the nation-state Bitcoin accumulation narrative could be strengthened, potentially having a meaningful impact on supply-demand dynamics.”

In derivatives, gradually constructive signals are emerging. As demand for put options to hedge against price declines eases, the market’s downside caution also appears to be softening. Meanwhile, demand is increasing for $100,000 call options and upside straddles expiring on January 30, 2026. If spot prices rise gradually, the options structure could draw in additional buying and reinforce the upswing, the report said.

Still, QCP added that given the repeatedly observed “post-rally pullback” pattern in recent U.S. equities, restrained positioning is needed rather than excessive optimism. While the structural backdrop is improving, it said a cautious approach is still warranted during bouts of heightened short-term volatility.