$2.2 Billion Options Expiry 'Calm Before the Storm'... Bitcoin, Ethereum Battle Over 'Max Pain'

As $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin (Bitcoin, BTC) and Ethereum (Ethereum, ETH) options approach expiry, the market is catching its breath around the max-pain level—the price point that inflicts the greatest losses on option holders—while a convergence of macro catalysts, including the release of U.S. jobs data and a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, is adding to the sense of a calm before the storm.

According to crypto news outlet BeInCrypto on Jan. 9 (local time), cryptocurrency options totaling $2.2 billion are nearing expiry on crypto derivatives exchange Deribit. Bitcoin traded near $90,985, closely tracking its max-pain price of $90,000, while Ethereum held around $3,113, slightly above its max-pain level of $3,100. The notional options outstanding amounted to roughly $1.89 billion for Bitcoin and $396 million for Ethereum, setting the stage for a tense standoff ahead of expiry.

In the Bitcoin options market, open interest stood at 10,105 call contracts versus 10,633 put contracts, putting the put-call ratio at 1.05 and indicating a balance between bullish and bearish forces. This symmetrical setup tends to intensify dealers’ hedging activity, which can suppress volatility into expiry and effectively pin the spot price within a narrow range. Ethereum, by contrast, showed an asymmetric tilt to the upside, with 67,872 call contracts versus 59,297 put contracts, translating to a put-call ratio of 0.87.

Deribit analysts said Ethereum call positions are concentrated above $3,000, suggesting that if spot remains above max pain, dealers are more likely to respond with upside positioning after expiry. Analyst Kyle Doops also noted that if Ethereum stays above its max-pain price, dealers could step in to buy spot following expiry. He added that volatility typically compresses into expiry, with clearer directional moves emerging only afterward.

Alongside the options expiry, the U.S. December employment report is emerging as a key market variable. With markets expecting nonfarm payrolls to rise by 73,000 and the unemployment rate to print at 4.5%, the dollar index’s roughly 0.5% gain last week has weighed on non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin and gold. In particular, a stronger-than-expected increase in average hourly earnings could complicate the Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook, pushing Treasury yields higher and dragging Bitcoin lower.

Adding to uncertainty, the U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on the legality of tariffs imposed by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump (Donald Trump). Prediction markets are leaning toward a decision that would curb the president’s tariff authority, a development that could trigger near-term trade and growth risks. Traders interpret current positioning as defensive rather than outright bearish. They expect the market’s direction to become clearer after expiry, once dealers’ hedges unwind and the impact of the jobs data and the Supreme Court ruling fully filters through.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we do not take responsibility for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*