Trump warns tariffs will be 'even tougher' in hawkish remarks…too early to call a Bitcoin bottom [Kang Min-seung’s Trade Now]

As U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed his resolve to tighten tariffs, waning expectations for additional rate cuts are deepening a wait-and-see mood in Bitcoin (BTC) as well. Analysts say that with continued outflows from spot ETF funds, the path toward further declines or a rebound could hinge on whether the $60,000 level holds.

As of 17:20 on the 25th, Bitcoin was trading at $65,184 on Binance’s USDT market, up 3% from the previous day. At the same time, it was changing hands at 94.77 million won on Upbit’s KRW market. The “kimchi premium,” which indicates the price gap between overseas and domestic exchanges, stood at about 1.39%.

Trump reaffirms tariff tightening and hardline stance abroad

Recently, global equity and crypto (digital asset) markets have remained in a holding pattern as investors look to confirm the direction of U.S. policy and the path of monetary policy, even as some concerns surrounding the artificial intelligence (AI) industry have eased. In his State of the Union address, Trump reaffirmed an America First agenda and a tough tariff stance.

On the 24th (local time; 25th Korea time), in his first State of the Union address of his second term, President Trump described the Supreme Court’s ruling that reciprocal tariffs are illegal as “a very regrettable decision,” while saying that “nearly all countries and companies want to keep the existing agreements.” Stressing he would maintain the policy through alternative means, he added, “Tariffs going forward will be stronger than before.” The administration is considering using provisions such as Sections 122 and 301 of the Trade Act and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act instead of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

On the U.S. economy, he claimed that “America has come back stronger than ever.” He added, “Over the past 12 months, we brought core inflation down to its lowest level in about five years, and in the last three months of last year it fell to 1.7%,” highlighting progress on price stability. At the same time, on Iran, he warned, “If necessary, we will not hesitate to confront threats aimed at the United States,” also hinting at the possibility of a military response.

Markets are still leaning toward caution on monetary policy. As of 17:00, the CME FedWatch showed the futures market pricing in a 98% probability that the policy rate will be left unchanged in March. Minutes from the January FOMC meeting, released earlier, cited a two-way rate path—leaving open the possibility of additional tightening depending on the pace of disinflation, while also not ruling out a pivot to easing depending on economic conditions. As a result, risk-off sentiment has not been quick to fade.

ETF outflows and defensive on-chain signals…mixed supply-demand indicators

Last week (17th–20th), U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows totaling $315.9 million (about 451.4 billion won), extending the withdrawal trend. With net outflows persisting for five consecutive weeks, it marks the longest stretch of fund outflows since February last year. As of today, total net assets in Bitcoin spot ETFs stand at about $84.3 billion, down to about half their peak from October last year.

Major on-chain indicators remain in a defensive phase. On the 25th, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode said “spot, derivatives, ETF and broader on-chain indicators are maintaining a defensive posture, and investor participation is relatively low.” It added, “The realized profit/loss ratio has recently fallen below 1, entering an over-realized-loss phase.” The realized profit/loss ratio indicates whether market participants are realizing profits or selling at a loss; readings below 1 imply a regime in which loss-taking dominates. Glassnode, however, noted that “in past cases where this phase persisted for more than six months, rebounds tended to appear alongside a recovery in liquidity.”

Meanwhile, accumulation is also being observed at lower price levels. Crypto-focused media outlet CoinDesk reported on the 24th that “around 429,000 BTC were newly purchased in the $60,000–$70,000 range, increasing holdings formed in that band by 43% from the start of the year.” This suggests that as coins change hands during the correction, a medium- to long-term support zone could form.

Some analysts also argue the recent decline is gradually moving into a stabilization phase. Global crypto exchange Bitfinex said, “As volatility compresses, the market is transitioning from a liquidation-driven plunge phase to a more balanced phase,” adding that “a significant portion of the selling has been absorbed in the $60,000–$69,000 demand zone.” However, it cautioned that “institutional flows remain cautious,” and that “Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound unless sustained accumulation returns.”

In particular, regulatory uncertainty is also being cited as a factor restraining investor sentiment. The CLARITY Act, legislation related to the structure of the crypto market, has run into headwinds in the U.S. Congress, reducing policy visibility. Some observers say that if the bill is not passed within the second quarter—before the U.S. midterm election cycle fully ramps up—crypto weakness could be prolonged.

With internal demand weakening, correlations with traditional financial assets have also noticeably declined. On-chain analytics firm Santiment said, “Since late August last year, gold has gained 51% and the S&P 500 has risen 7%, while Bitcoin has fallen 43%,” adding that “this is the lowest correlation level since late 2022.” It added, however, that “there have been cases in the past where, after correlations dropped sharply, Bitcoin re-tracked the equity-market move and shifted into a rebound phase.” This is interpreted as suggesting that capital flows could be recalibrated after a short-term divergence.

Bitcoin’s $60,000 inflection point…analysts say it’s 'too early to call a bottom'

Analysts say Bitcoin is at a crossroads between further declines and a technical rebound at a key price zone. In the near term, whether it can defend the $60,000 line is being cited as a key variable.

Aayush Jindal, a researcher at NewsBTC, said, “If Bitcoin fails to break above the $66,600 area in the short term, selling pressure could persist.” He added that “a short-term support is forming near $65,000,” and that “$64,200 and $62,500 are additional support zones; if those break, a pullback to $61,200 is possible.” He noted, however, that “if it breaks above $66,600, the rebound could extend to $68,000 and the $70,000 level.”

Rakesh Upadhyay, a researcher at Cointelegraph, said, “If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $70,185, which is cited as a short-term support level, downside pressure could strengthen again,” adding that “if a daily close forms below $60,000, a path opens for additional downside to $52,500.” He added that “conversely, if it breaks above $70,185, a medium-term rebound could extend to $74,508.”

Caution is also growing that it is premature to say the market has entered a definitive bottoming zone. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief analyst at FxPro, said, “Bitcoin’s move back to $63,000 doesn’t feel like the bottom of this decline,” adding that “if it fails to stage a meaningful rebound from current levels, there remains a potential risk of an additional decline of about 25% down to the 2023 accumulation zone.” He added, “True capitulation (mass selling) has not yet appeared,” and that “unless a sharp deterioration in sentiment accompanied by panic selling is confirmed, it is still difficult to conclude that a bottom has formed.”

Kang Min-seung, BloombergBit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io