Polymarket Odds of US Invasion of Iran Jump to 63%; Bitcoin Holds Near $67,500

Rising odds of a US invasion of Iran are adding to market uncertainty.

Polymarket data on June 5 showed the probability of a US invasion of Iran this year had climbed to 63%. The increase followed recent remarks by President Donald Trump.

The odds of an invasion before 2027 were still below the 68% reached on March 29. Expectations peaked then as the US boosted its military presence in the Middle East and speculation mounted over a possible seizure of Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil export hub.

Trading volume tied to the event totaled about $3.74 million.

Trump recently made hawkish comments suggesting possible military action against Iran, stoking market volatility. The message also conflicted with his earlier suggestion that a withdrawal could come within two to three weeks, adding to uncertainty over the administration's policy direction.

Against that backdrop, Bitcoin has shown little clear direction. It was trading in a narrow range near $67,500, with limited movement despite the geopolitical risk.

Markets have also been rattled by uncertainty over whether the war will continue and whether it could widen, keeping investors on the sidelines.

Meanwhile, oil prices remained firm. Brent crude held above $109 a barrel as geopolitical tensions fueled supply concerns.