Bitcoin Tries to Break Back Above $81,800 Short-Term Holder Cost Basis
Summary
- On-chain analysis showed Bitcoin is trying to reclaim about $81,800, the average cost basis for short-term holders.
- If Bitcoin holds that range on a daily closing basis, it could signal an improvement in market structure and serves as a key support and resistance level for the medium-term trend.
- If Bitcoin posts both daily and weekly closes above that level, it could be interpreted as a stronger bullish signal.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
On-chain data shows Bitcoin is attempting to move back above the average cost basis of short-term holders, or STHs. A daily close above that level could signal an improvement in market structure.
In a CryptoQuant Quicktake report published May 12, analyst Darkfost wrote that Bitcoin’s realized average cost basis for short-term holders is currently about $81,800.
Some existing indicators failed to fully remove the effect of internal wallet transfers at Coinbase, according to Darkfost.
A significant portion of roughly 800,000 Bitcoin moved within Coinbase had been classified as long-term holder, or LTH, supply, he wrote. As those coins were reclassified as new short-term holder UTXOs during routine wallet transfers, the average short-term holder cost basis was artificially lowered.
Using a separate indicator that strips out as much of the Coinbase transfer effect as possible, the actual average cost basis for short-term holders is now calculated at about $81,800.
The short-term holder cost basis is widely used as one of the key support and resistance levels for assessing Bitcoin’s medium-term trend.
Darkfost said Bitcoin faced resistance at that level for a third time on May 6 and is now attempting another breakout.
A daily close above the range would mark meaningful progress, he added. A weekly close above it would be interpreted as an even stronger bullish signal.
