Why Nvidia’s Outlook May Keep Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix Investors Up at Night

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix retail investors brace for a sleepless night

All eyes are on Nvidia’s guidance

Nvidia to report earnings on May 21

Second-quarter guidance is the key

HBM demand at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in focus

Nvidia’s fiscal first-quarter results are due early May 21 in South Korea. The report is drawing close attention from the country’s semiconductor industry and investors because it may offer clues on the global artificial intelligence investment cycle and demand for high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Focus on second-quarter guidance

According to AI-based investment information platform Epic AI, market consensus for Nvidia’s fiscal first quarter, covering February through April 2026, is for revenue of $78.7 billion to $78.9 billion and earnings per share of $1.75 to $1.77 as of May 20. That would represent year-on-year increases of 79% and 83%, respectively.

This time, the focus is falling more on second-quarter guidance than on the first-quarter numbers themselves. Nvidia has beaten profit estimates 18 times and revenue estimates 19 times in its past 20 earnings reports. What investors want is not just another earnings beat, but results strong enough to justify the recent rally in chip stocks and an aggressive outlook for the second quarter.

Investors are also watching Blackwell supply trends closely. If Nvidia signals that Blackwell shipments are proceeding as planned, that could bolster expectations for AI server spending and memory demand in the second half. Attention is also turning to Vera Rubin, the company’s next-generation platform after Blackwell. Securities firms have said cumulative revenue forecasts for the Rubin and Blackwell architectures from 2025 through 2027 have been raised to $1 trillion from $500 billion.

Another key question is whether big tech companies will sustain their AI capital-expenditure push in the second half. The market is watching how much of that spending stance is reflected in Nvidia’s results and guidance. Major customers for Nvidia’s AI accelerators include Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle. Brokerages expect capital-expenditure forecasts for the top five cloud and hyperscale companies to approach $700 billion this year, up $120 billion from the start of the year.

HBM supply chain also in focus

South Korean memory makers are watching Nvidia’s results closely because of the structure of the supply chain. HBM is an essential component in Nvidia’s AI accelerators, which means shipment volumes and guidance feed directly into HBM demand expectations.

SK Hynix is seen as the company with the most direct exposure to Nvidia’s HBM supply chain. After supplying most of Nvidia’s HBM3E volumes, it also plans to supply large volumes of next-generation HBM4. According to semiconductor research firm SemiAnalysis, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are projected to account for 70% and 30%, respectively, of Nvidia’s Vera Rubin supply chain.

Samsung Electronics has sold out its entire HBM4 output after becoming the first in the industry to begin mass production, with expanded supply scheduled for the second half. Its HBM4 has also been reported to have received top-level marks in Nvidia’s internal testing.

For now, both stocks are taking a breather after sharp short-term gains. Samsung Electronics rose as high as 296,500 won intraday on May 15, but closed at 276,000 won on May 20, down 6.9% from that peak. SK Hynix climbed to 1.995 million won intraday over the same period before ending at 1.745 million won, or 12.5% below its high. The pullback reflects profit-taking after a rapid rally and caution ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release.

There are also risks. Export restrictions to China amid U.S.-China trade tensions could directly affect Nvidia’s revenue. Competition from AMD and in-house AI chips developed by big tech companies is another variable, along with valuation pressure from a sharp rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields. At Samsung Electronics, concerns over a potential labor union strike have emerged as a risk. At SK Hynix, questions over HBM4 certification, yields and competition for customer share remain.

Against that backdrop, the industry and investors are watching Nvidia’s quarterly results closely. Epic AI Copilot said strong earnings and guidance from Nvidia could act as a catalyst for expectations of increased HBM supply volumes at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. But it added that uncertainty in the China market, intensifying AI chip competition and the burden of recent sharp gains could limit further upside in the stocks.

Hong Min-seong, Hankyung.com reporter mshong@hankyung.com