TD Cowen Says Trump’s CFTC Backing Unlikely to Sway Prediction-Market Legal Battle
Forecast Trend Report by Period
President Donald Trump’s support for giving the Commodity Futures Trading Commission exclusive authority over prediction markets is unlikely to have much impact on the legal fight already underway, TD Cowen said. Investors are instead focused on the clash between federal and state authorities over who should regulate the sector.
The Block reported on May 27 that TD Cowen does not expect Trump’s comments to change the course of the ongoing litigation.
Trump has previously said the CFTC should have sole authority to regulate prediction markets. TD Cowen said the dispute over oversight of prediction markets and sports betting is still likely to reach the US Supreme Court.
For now, the report said, state governments that oversee sports-gambling regulation appear to have the upper hand. It added that the litigation could take more than two years to be fully resolved.
Prediction-market platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket have recently remained in legal disputes with some state governments. Market participants say the direction of US regulation for prediction markets and sports betting could shape growth in the industry.
