Swan Bitcoin CEO Says Retail Investors Still Sway Prices in Spot ETF Era
Summary
- Swan Bitcoin's CEO said retail investors still have a major influence on Bitcoin price formation even in the era of spot ETFs.
- He said purchases through ETFs translate into real spot Bitcoin demand, reducing the amount of Bitcoin available for trading in the market.
- He said $2.9 billion in net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, a 9.5%% drop in the Bitcoin price, and the Fear & Greed Index entering Extreme Fear led him to lower the odds of a new all-time high this year to 20%% to 25%%.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have become a key investment vehicle, but retail investors still play a major role in determining Bitcoin prices, according to an analysis.
Swan Bitcoin Chief Executive Officer Cory Klippsten said in an interview at the recent Bitcoin Vegas 2026 event that BlackRock and Fidelity are not the ones actually buying Bitcoin. Most ETF buyers are retail investors, he told Cointelegraph in a report published May 29.
Klippsten also argued that demand flowing through ETFs amounts to real spot demand. Investors are simply buying Bitcoin through the ETF wrapper, while fund issuers must acquire and custody actual Bitcoin, reducing the amount available for trading in the market.
Futures and some derivatives can operate differently from actual supply, he said. On-chain Bitcoin is different because it requires buyers to secure the real asset, which he described as one of Bitcoin's unique characteristics.
Still, investor sentiment around Bitcoin has weakened recently. Data compiled by Farside Investors show US spot-Bitcoin ETFs posted cumulative net outflows of $2.9 billion from May 15. Over the same period, Bitcoin fell about 9.5%.
Market sentiment has also deteriorated. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which tracks sentiment in digital assets, stood at 23 that day, putting it in the Extreme Fear zone. The reading suggests investors are growing more cautious toward risk assets.
Klippsten also lowered his estimate for the likelihood that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high this year. Earlier this year, when Bitcoin was trading near $95,000, he put the odds at about 50%. He now sees them at 20% to 25%.
"Given that Bitcoin is still in the $70,000 range and at one point fell to around $60,000, the chances of setting a new all-time high this year are much lower than before," Klippsten said.
