Bitcoin Enters Seasonally Weak June Stretch; Short-Term Bottom in Focus
Summary
- BIT said Bitcoin has entered a seasonally weak June period, after falling 16%% since the start of the year, when returns have historically slowed.
- BIT said seasonality could remain a headwind, citing Bitcoin’s 0.7%% average June return over the past 10 years and its tendency to trade sideways during the summer.
- BIT said a tactical case can be made that Bitcoin may be nearing a short-term bottom if short-term catalysts, including the US launch of perpetual futures, the Nasdaq-CME crypto index schedule and fresh demand inflows, come together.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin has entered June, a month when returns have historically weakened, according to an analysis released Sunday. Some market watchers say seasonal pressure could still give way to a short-term bottom if key catalysts line up.
BIT, formerly Matrixport, posted data on X on June 1 showing Bitcoin’s monthly seasonality over the past 10 years. The data showed Bitcoin’s average return in June was 0.7%, lower than in February at 12.3%, April at 11.3%, May at 10.3% and October at 17.9%.
BIT said Bitcoin is down 16% since the start of the year and is entering a seasonally tougher period. Over the past decade, June has delivered an average return of just 0.7%, and Bitcoin has often traded sideways during the summer.
Still, this year’s pattern may differ from historical seasonality. BIT said May, which has typically been a strong month, did not produce a clear upswing this year, raising the possibility that the seasonal pattern could reverse.
The market is also watching near-term catalysts. BIT said the launch of perpetual futures in the US and a June 8 event tied to crypto indexes from Nasdaq and CME are approaching. While seasonality remains a headwind, BIT said Bitcoin could be nearing a short-term bottom from a tactical perspective if fresh demand flows into the market.
