Benjamin Cowen Says Bitcoin’s June Weakness in US Midterm Election Years Is a Recurring Pattern
Summary
- Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin has historically shown a seasonal pattern of weakness through June in US midterm election years.
- He said recent explanations for Bitcoin’s correction include ETF fund flows, macroeconomic variables and geopolitical risks.
- He said on-chain data shows declining whale holdings and net outflows from spot ETFs, even as long-term holder holdings have reached a record high.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin’s recent weakness resembles a seasonal pattern that has repeatedly appeared in US midterm election years, as the market remains split over the latest BTC pullback.
In a post on X on June 1, Cowen wrote that while there are many explanations for Bitcoin’s current decline, the token has tended to remain weak through June in years when the US holds midterm elections.
The four-year cycle theory is often criticized and mocked, he wrote, but it has so far shown greater explanatory power than any other theory that has been proposed.
Cowen said market participants have recently pointed to ETF fund flows, macroeconomic variables and geopolitical risks as drivers of Bitcoin’s correction. Similar pullbacks were repeated around the same point in earlier cycles, he added.
Recent on-chain data shows whale holdings have declined and trading activity has slowed, while spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to post net outflows. At the same time, holdings by long-term holders, or LTHs, have risen to a record high.
Market observers say seasonality in midterm election years, the macroeconomic environment and changes in institutional flows are all influencing price action.
