IRGC Commander Says Bab el-Mandeb Could Become Like Hormuz if Israel Continues Lebanon, Gaza Operations
Summary
- Markets are focusing on the risk that remarks from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could fuel shipping disruptions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
- If operations in Lebanon and Gaza continue, the situation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could reach the same level as in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Market participants say that if tensions escalate across the two straits, volatility could rise in crude prices, global supply chains, and commodity markets.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Esmail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could come to resemble the Strait of Hormuz if Israel continues its military operations in Lebanon and Gaza. Markets are watching for the risk of rising tensions around key Middle East shipping lanes.
Walter Bloomberg reported on June 1 that Qaani said the Axis of Resistance would make shipping conditions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait “the same as the Strait of Hormuz” if Israel’s operations in Lebanon and Gaza continue.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a strategic maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. It is one of the main routes for global crude and cargo shipments moving through the Suez Canal.
The U.S. and Iran have recently been holding talks on extending a ceasefire, restarting nuclear negotiations and normalizing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Even so, conflict over the Lebanon front and control of sea lanes continues.
Market participants say tensions spreading from the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could increase volatility in crude prices, global supply chains and commodity markets.
