OECD Sees South Korea's 2026 Nominal Growth Reaching 10.4%

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development projects South Korea's nominal economic growth will exceed 10% this year, driven by a semiconductor supercycle that is set to lift both real growth and export prices.

In its Economic Outlook report released on June 3, the OECD raised its forecast for South Korea's real economic growth this year to 2.6% from 1.7%. It also sharply increased its GDP deflator projection to 7.6% from 1.9%. The GDP deflator is a broad price gauge that includes consumer prices as well as export and import prices. A jump in memory-chip prices pushed the measure higher. The OECD now forecasts nominal growth of 10.4%.

South Korea's nominal growth would top 10% for the first time since 2002, when it reached 11.0%.

President Lee Jae-myung said at a Cabinet meeting on May 26 that some forecasts showed nominal growth could approach 10% this year.

Kim Ik-hwan and Jeong Young-hyo, Korea Economic Daily reporters, lovepen@hankyung.com