Bitcoin May Fall Below February Low, With $54,000 as Last Major Support

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, could drop below its February low as the token remains under heavy pressure, according to a report by crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr.

In the June 5 report, Adler wrote that Bitcoin is retesting its February low near $62,000 and is now attempting to break below that level.

Bitcoin is currently trading well below the average cost basis of short-term holders, or STH, at about $76,000. That means short-term investors are facing substantial unrealized losses.

The main support levels below the current price are $54,000, the average cost basis for the overall network, and $49,000, the average cost basis for long-term holders, or LTH. In previous cycles, Bitcoin fell to those levels when the market entered a full downturn, Adler added.

Investor losses are also widening. Net realized losses over the past seven days totaled about $7 billion, exceeding the level seen when Bitcoin hit its February low.

Adler said the current correction is unfolding differently from the February decline. In February, the main bout of panic selling came before the price formed a bottom. Now, selling pressure is strengthening as Bitcoin approaches that low, and there is still no sign of a swift rebound.

The market is repeating a bottom-testing phase similar to February, but realized losses are larger this time. As long as Bitcoin holds above $54,000, it would be difficult to call this a full capitulation phase, he wrote. If that level gives way, however, the market could come under further downside pressure.