Galaxy Research Cuts CLARITY Act Passage Odds by 2026 to 60% on Senate Delay Concerns
Summary
- Alex Thorn said he lowered his estimate for the probability that the CLARITY Act will pass by 2026 to 60%% from 75%%.
- He said the US Senate's decision to prioritize FISA-related matters has increased the chances that debate on the crypto bill, the CLARITY Act, will be delayed.
- He said the CLARITY Act would clearly divide digital-asset regulatory authority between the SEC and the CFTC, and is considered a key bill in building the US crypto regulatory framework.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Galaxy Research lowered its estimate for the odds that the CLARITY Act, a US crypto market structure bill, will pass by 2026, citing mounting concerns over delays in the Senate.
On June 5, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research, wrote on X that he had cut his probability estimate for the bill's passage by 2026 to 60% from 75%.
He cited a tighter-than-expected Senate legislative calendar as the main reason. With the chamber needing to prioritize issues related to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA, debate on crypto legislation could be pushed back.
Much of next week's Senate schedule could be consumed by FISA-related matters, raising the risk of another delay in consideration of the CLARITY Act.
Thorn also wrote that disputes over congressional ethics rules and illicit-finance provisions, including anti-money laundering requirements, remain unresolved.
The CLARITY Act would clearly divide digital-asset regulatory authority between the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The crypto industry views it, along with the GENIUS Act, a stablecoin bill, as a central piece of the US digital-asset regulatory framework.
The Senate had been expected to resume deliberations on the CLARITY Act after the Memorial Day recess, but progress has been slower than anticipated because of scheduling constraints and political disagreements.
