SpaceX IPO in Focus as KOSPI Seen Trading Between 7,800 and 8,900

A listing for the history books is coming

SpaceX commands investors' attention

NH Investment & Securities sees the KOSPI at 7,800-8,900 this week

The KOSPI is set to swing between June 8 and June 12 depending on sentiment surrounding SpaceX's planned Nasdaq debut. Brokerages say investors should watch for fund shifts and profit-taking ahead of the blockbuster initial public offering. Even so, expectations for South Korea's stock market remain supported by continued momentum in artificial intelligence investment.

NH Investment & Securities said on June 7 that it expects the KOSPI to trade in a range of 7,800 to 8,900 this week. Lee Sang-jun, an analyst at the firm, said the index has recently shown elevated volatility amid worries about a short-term surge, concentration in semiconductor shares and a stalemate in US-Iran talks. With SpaceX scheduled to list on Nasdaq on June 12, he said money could flow out of the market's existing leaders from a supply-and-demand standpoint.

SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion to $86 billion through the IPO. Up to 30% of the offering is set aside for retail investors, according to the report. South Korean retail investors were excluded from the public subscription. In Japan and some other markets, however, individuals were able to participate, fueling competition for shares.

Daishin Securities also named SpaceX as a key market catalyst to watch next week. Moon Nam-joong, an analyst at the firm, said the stock could see extreme volatility immediately after the listing. Shares may jump in the first two to three days of trading, but aggressive profit-taking could also emerge. Based on past cases, he added, stocks have often fallen for months after IPOs, and investor enthusiasm that was high before the listing can cool quickly.

Yuanta Securities took a more constructive view, saying the semiconductor cycle, the core driver of South Korea's stock market, remains solid despite the volatile backdrop. Lee Jae-won, an analyst at the firm, said semiconductor exports rose 169.4% in May from a year earlier, while memory-chip prices continued to climb. Concerns that the AI investment boom may be fading are still seen by many as overdone.

He added that Broadcom's recent share decline after earnings was widely viewed as a result of lofty market expectations rather than weakening AI demand.

Lee also said Alphabet's move to secure large-scale funding and expand capital spending signals that investment in AI infrastructure will continue for a long period. If demand for AI services keeps growing, South Korean companies are likely to benefit in areas including high-bandwidth memory, memory chips, AI servers and power infrastructure.

The key issue for South Korea's stock market this week is not whether AI and semiconductors, the market's leadership group, will break down, but whether funds concentrated in chip shares will spread to other sectors, Lee said. In the short term, a pullback could emerge because of war, oil prices or interest-rate concerns. Even so, brokerages largely view such weakness as a chance to buy quality AI and semiconductor stocks again.

Kang Kyung-ju, Hankyung.com reporter qurasoha@hankyung.com