Bitcoin Demand Falls to Lowest Since 2019, Raising Capitulation Risk
Summary
- Bitcoin demand fell to negative 650,000 BTC on a 30-day composite demand indicator, the lowest level since 2019, according to the analysis.
- Spot buying and leveraged capital in the futures market are retreating at the same time, signaling deeper risk aversion among market participants.
- The indicator has previously appeared ahead of sharp volatility expansion or a further steep drop, though some analysts say extreme demand contraction may be part of a long-term market bottoming process.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin market demand has shrunk to its lowest level since 2019, according to a new analysis, with traders watching for signs of investor capitulation.
On June 9, on-chain analyst MorenoDV said a 30-day composite demand indicator for Bitcoin spot and perpetual futures markets had dropped to negative 650,000 BTC.
Demand evaporating on that scale has occurred only three times in Bitcoin's history, he wrote, calling it a highly unusual development.
The current backdrop may be more than a simple price correction and could mark the early stage of a final shakeout typically seen near the end of a bear market, the analyst said.
The analysis showed spot buying and leveraged capital in the futures market retreating at the same time. That suggests risk aversion among market participants has increased sharply.
MorenoDV added that in past cases, the indicator was not an immediate bottom signal. Instead, it more often appeared just before a surge in volatility or another sharp decline.
Market observers have also pointed to recent spot ETF outflows, macroeconomic uncertainty and weakening appetite for risk assets as factors behind softer Bitcoin demand.
Some analysts, however, say an extreme contraction in demand could also be part of a longer-term market bottoming process.
