Iran Says Talks Revert to Draft From Two Weeks Ago as Trump May Unfreeze $12 Billion

End of U.S.-Iran War May Be Near as 14-Point Peace MOU Takes Shape

Deal Would Promise Early Release of $12 Billion

Oil Slumps on Hopes Strait of Hormuz Will Reopen

Iran Denies Any Final Agreement on Details

The U.S. and Iran may sign a peace memorandum including a ceasefire in Geneva on June 14, 106 days after the war began. President Donald Trump said a signing could come this weekend, on June 13 or June 14. A senior Iranian official also assessed the chances of a deal as high. Oil prices tumbled as expectations grew that ships held up in the Strait of Hormuz could soon resume passage.

Bloomberg reported on June 11, citing Group of Seven officials, that a senior Iranian official said overnight the odds were high for an agreement between Washington and Tehran. Geneva is being discussed as the most likely venue for the signing ceremony. Trump is scheduled to attend the G7 leaders' summit in Evian-les-Bains, France, from June 15 to June 17. Because the city is close to Geneva, the timing of any U.S.-Iran agreement could intersect with the summit.

Iran's Mehr News Agency reported on June 12, citing a source familiar with Tehran's negotiating team, that the MOU contains 14 provisions. They include a full lifting of the U.S. maritime blockade within 30 days, a suspension of sanctions on oil and related products, and guaranteed full Iranian access to financial assets. The draft also reflects a U.S. commitment to release $12 billion in frozen Iranian funds before the start of 60 days of negotiations and another $12 billion during the talks.

As recently as the previous day, Trump had threatened to attack Iran's Kharg Island and take control of its oil resources. The mood shifted abruptly after he posted on social media, about three hours before the planned bombing, that he was calling it off and that a deal was near.

Iran's Fars News Agency provided a more detailed account of the talks. It said the two sides had effectively reached the final stage of an agreement two weeks ago, but negotiations were halted after Trump asked to add several details. On June 10, however, Qatar stepped in as a mediator and the U.S. withdrew its demand for additional clauses. The talks then returned to a plan to sign an agreement based on the terms settled two weeks earlier, with no new provisions.

The negotiations have not been finalized. Fars denied reports of a June 14 signing ceremony in Geneva, saying Iran's internal review and decision-making process had not yet been completed and that it "fully denies" such reports. Even so, the terms agreed two weeks ago mirror demands Iran had already made of the U.S., which could support approval by Iranian authorities.

Trump said the core of the agreement is Iran's commitment not to possess nuclear weapons. For now, the more plausible scenario is that the two sides sign a broad accord first and leave detailed plans, including the removal of enriched uranium, for later negotiations.

International oil prices fell sharply on signs that a deal to end the war could be near. West Texas Intermediate for July delivery dropped to $83.37 a barrel at about 4 a.m. on June 12 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent for August delivery, which settled at $90.38 the previous day, fell to $85.97.

Lee Sang-eun, Washington correspondent, Korea Economic Daily, selee@hankyung.com