Bitcoin Retreats Below $66,000 Despite Middle East Relief, as Confidence in Rally Remains Elusive
Summary
- Bitcoin stayed near $65,845, posting only modest gains despite a US-Iran peace agreement.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $5.4 billion in net outflows over the past four weeks, signaling no clear return yet from institutional investors.
- Market participants are watching the US-Iran final agreement signing and the US FOMC decision as the key factors likely to determine Bitcoin's direction.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin posted only modest gains despite news of a peace agreement between the US and Iran, highlighting investors' cautious stance. While stocks and oil reacted immediately, the crypto market appeared to be waiting to see whether the agreement would hold.
CoinDesk reported on June 16 that Bitcoin briefly climbed to $67,217 before surrendering those gains and trading near $65,845. The token was up 0.3% over the past 24 hours and 4.8% over the past week.
Altcoins outperformed. Ether rose 2.8% from a day earlier to $1,764, while Solana gained 3.2% to $73 and XRP advanced 3.2% to $1.22. Hyperliquid jumped 6.3%, the biggest gain among major digital assets.
The broader market backdrop turned more supportive. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran. Trump also said the Strait of Hormuz, now only partially open, will fully reopen on June 19.
Oil prices fell sharply in response. Brent crude dropped below $83 a barrel, while the S&P 500 rose 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 3.1%.
Bitcoin, however, remained subdued relative to the recovery in risk appetite. Jimmy Xue, co-founder and chief operating officer at Axis, said oil had fallen more than 4% and Asian equities had risen more than 3%, yet Bitcoin had barely moved. In his view, that suggests the market has not fully bought into the agreement.
The caution also reflects the fact that this is the third ceasefire attempt. Bitcoin gave back all of its gains after an April ceasefire agreement and again during the relief rally that followed June 9. Trump has also said the deal could fall apart if Iran does not agree to halt its nuclear program.
Flows remain a headwind. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded about $5.4 billion of net outflows over the past four weeks, and there is still no clear sign of a broad return by institutional investors. Still, Bitcoin has continued to move from exchanges to cold wallets, a positive sign from a supply perspective.
Chris Perkins, incoming head of Franklin Crypto under Franklin Templeton, said the current environment is supportive for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. He added that investors should watch whether retail money that exited after the SpaceX IPO returns as the macro backdrop improves.
Market participants are watching the scheduled signing of a final US-Iran agreement on June 19 and the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee on June 18 as the key drivers of Bitcoin's next move.
