Wintermute Says Bitcoin Hasn’t Bottomed; ETF, Stablecoin Inflows Are Key
Summary
- Wintermute said Bitcoin offers an attractive risk-reward profile in the low-$60,000 range, but has not yet reached a bottom.
- Wintermute said it makes little sense to chase a short-term rebound because signals of fund inflows — including into spot Bitcoin ETFs and stablecoins — have yet to emerge.
- Wintermute said the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, comments from Chair Kevin Warsh, and the US-Iran signing ceremony for a war-ending MOU are the key variables for the crypto market’s short-term direction.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Crypto market maker Wintermute said Bitcoin has not yet found a bottom.
BlockBeats reported on June 17 that Wintermute said in a recent weekly report that risk appetite had recovered amid factors including a ceasefire between the US and Iran. The firm said Bitcoin has entered an attractive risk-reward zone in the low-$60,000 range. It added that repeated sharp selloffs have driven out short-term traders, reshaping holdings toward investors with stronger conviction.
Wintermute said, however, that it is still too early to conclude Bitcoin has bottomed. The firm added that Bitcoin could still fall into the $50,000 range before conditions materially improve.
Wintermute also said investors should watch fund flows. It said the turning point in the previous cycle coincided with sustained increases in inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and stablecoins. So far, those signals have yet to appear, making it meaningless to blindly chase a short-term rebound.
As a near-term variable, Wintermute pointed to comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh after the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision due this week. If Warsh strikes a dovish tone, it would likely support the crypto market.
Another variable is the signing ceremony on June 19 for a memorandum of understanding to end the war between the US and Iran. Wintermute said the event could be a key driver of the crypto market’s short-term direction.
