a16z Says Prediction Market Weekly Volume Hits Record $14.4 Billion for Third Straight Week
Summary
- a16z Crypto said weekly prediction market trading volume hit a record $14.4 billion, extending its streak of all-time highs to three straight weeks.
- It also said prediction market open interest reached a record $1.6 billion, up about eightfold from less than $200 million last fall.
- Weekly non-sports prediction market trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $3.6 billion, about 18 times higher than in July last year, as market interest in the platforms grows.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Weekly trading volume on prediction market platforms hit a record for a third straight week, as World Cup-related activity increased and non-sports trading tied to politics, the economy and geopolitics also expanded.
A16z Crypto said June 25 that total weekly prediction market volume reached $14.4 billion last week, the highest level on record.
Weekly volume has climbed from roughly $5 billion to $6 billion at the start of this year to $14.4 billion last week, according to a16z. The previous record was about $10 billion, set just a week earlier.
Total prediction market volume was more than 10 times higher than a year earlier.
Open interest also reached a record. A16z said prediction market open interest rose to $1.6 billion last week, extending weekly all-time highs to three consecutive weeks.
"Open interest can rise only when new positions are opened faster than existing positions are closed," a16z said. "The recent increase shows more capital is being committed to prediction markets."
Prediction market open interest has risen steadily since last fall. It was below $200 million then and has since increased about eightfold to $1.6 billion.
The World Cup also helped drive the increase in prediction market trading. Growth outside sports was also pronounced. Combined weekly non-sports volume on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $3.6 billion last week, a16z said.
Non-sports trading includes politics, the economy, geopolitics and major current events. A16z said last week's non-sports volume exceeded total prediction market volume for all of last year.
In July last year, weekly non-sports volume was about $200 million. It has since risen about 18-fold, with growth accelerating this month.
At the same time, rising trading volume and open interest are drawing greater market attention to prediction market platforms. Demand on Kalshi and Polymarket is expanding beyond sports to contracts tied to macroeconomic, political and geopolitical events.
