XRP Nears $1 Breakdown as On-Chain Loss Metric Hits Lowest Since August 2022
Forecast Trend Report by Period
XRP is threatening the psychologically important $1 support level. As more investors cut their losses, an on-chain metric tracking realized losses has dropped to its lowest level since 2022.
CoinDoo reported that XRP fell as low as $1.0116 on June 25, its weakest intraday level since a sharp drop five days earlier. It later rebounded modestly to around $1.04, but was still trading about 3% lower than the previous day.
Technical indicators also point to a bearish trend. The 50-day moving average stands at $1.2675, the 100-day moving average at $1.3265 and the 200-day moving average at $1.5240, all well above the current price. The relative strength index fell to 30.74, close to oversold territory.
Still, some buying interest emerged as the token bounced from its intraday low. CoinDoo said trading volume during the rebound marked the largest green volume bar on the recent chart. That may indicate some easing in selling pressure, though not a trend reversal.
On-chain data are reinforcing the weak market mood. Glassnode's 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio fell to 0.33, the lowest level since August 2022.
The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio measures the balance between profits and losses realized on-chain. A reading below 1 means more transactions are being closed at a loss than at a profit. The current 0.33 reading indicates realized losses have been about three times larger than realized profits for several months.
CoinDoo said the latest reading reflects a structural shift rather than a one-day panic selloff. More investors are taking losses and leaving the market. It added that the level is similar to the bottom of the 2022 bear market, but by itself does not confirm that a floor has been reached.
Market participants are watching the $1 level as the key threshold for XRP's near-term direction. CoinDoo said a break below $1 could open the door to further declines, while holding that level could allow a short-term rebound toward $1.10 to $1.12. Current data show capitulation is intensifying rather than a bottom forming.
