Strategy Shaken as STRC Stays Below Par, Stirring Fears of Another Four-Year Crypto Crash

STRC remains below its $100 par value

Warnings mount over cash-flow risk

Some say comparisons with Terra are overblown

A prolonged Bitcoin bear market is deepening concern over Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency. Some market participants are asking whether the crypto market’s four-year crash cycle is reappearing.

Strategy’s preferred stock STRC closed at $75.69 on the Nasdaq on June 25, down 6.37% from the previous session, according to Yahoo Finance data cited on June 26.

STRC is a dividend-paying preferred share that Strategy launched in July 2025 to fund Bitcoin purchases. It was issued with a $100 par value and a 9.0% annual dividend. The structure allows the dividend rate to rise when the stock trades below par in order to attract buyers. With Bitcoin stuck in a downturn since October 2025, STRC’s annual dividend yield has climbed to 11.5%.

The problem is that STRC continues to trade below par even after Strategy repeatedly raised the dividend rate. Bitcoin’s prolonged weakness has weighed on demand. STRC held its $100 par value through May 14, but has traded below that level for 30 straight sessions since May 15.

That is fueling market concern. If STRC stays below par, Strategy would need to issue more preferred shares than before to raise the same amount of money, diluting shareholder value in the process. To raise $1 billion at par, for example, the company would have needed to sell 10 million STRC shares. At current prices, it would need to issue 12.5 million shares to raise the same $1 billion.

A larger preferred-share issuance would also increase Strategy’s dividend obligations. Its annual dividend payments to STRC investors now total $1.2 billion. That could become a growing cash burden for the company.

Still, Strategy appears committed to continuing the business. Chief Executive Officer Phong Le bought 1 million STRC shares himself on June 23 and declared he would not sell until the stock returns to par.

Coincidence or warning sign? Could the four-year crash cycle return?

As Strategy, the listed company with the world’s largest Bitcoin holdings, comes under pressure, fear is spreading in crypto communities that the kind of collapse the industry suffered four years ago could happen again. Influencer Kyle Chasse wrote on X on June 26 that some investors were worried Strategy could drag Bitcoin lower with it, adding that some were calling it “Terra-Luna 2.0.”

The crypto market has experienced bear markets on a roughly four-year cycle.

In 2022, the market plunged after the Terra-Luna collapse was followed by the bankruptcy of FTX. Bitcoin fell more than 70% from its then-record high of $69,000 in November 2021 to the $15,000 range.

In 2018, eight years earlier, the market also went through a downturn as then-Justice Minister Park Sang-ki’s remarks about shutting cryptocurrency exchanges, China’s mining ban and bearish views from prominent global academics hit sentiment at the same time.

In 2026, Bitcoin is again trading near the low end of its cycle. As of 5:20 p.m. on June 26, it was changing hands at $59,185, down 2.57% from a day earlier, according to CoinMarketCap. That was about 54% below its record high of $126,272 set in October 2025.

Industry views diverge

A number of industry experts have recently raised concerns about Strategy’s business structure.

Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, said on a recent podcast that Strategy’s problem is not Bitcoin but cash flow. Bitcoin does not generate interest income. If the price does not rise, the company has only two ways to pay preferred dividends: sell Bitcoin or raise more capital. Neither is desirable.

CryptoQuant, the on-chain data firm, also urged Strategy to halt Bitcoin purchases for now and focus on securing cash. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said dividend obligations are rising quickly while cash holdings are shrinking. Restoring cash reserves and the ability to pay dividends before resuming Bitcoin purchases would be the most direct way to rebuild market confidence.

Others argue the concern surrounding Strategy is overdone.

Mark Palmer, an analyst at Benchmark Research, wrote in a report that comparing STRC with Luna and Terra is inappropriate. STRC has a $100 par value, but it is not a stablecoin that guarantees that price. The current situation reflects weaker fundraising efficiency, not a collapse of the business model itself.

Kim Min-seung, head of Korbit Research Center, said STRC’s dividend burden does appear to be growing. Even so, he said, the chance that Strategy would dump all of its roughly 840,000 Bitcoin on the market at once is low.