Active Bitcoin Traders Face Average 20% Loss, but Cycle Bottom May Not Be In

Bitcoin has fallen below the average cost basis of short-term traders, signaling that the market has entered a broader loss phase. Even so, the current drawdown does not yet suggest this cycle has reached its bottom compared with past bear-market lows.

On July 4, CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that active investors — those trading heavily in the market recently — have an average entry price of about $76,700. That leaves active Bitcoin traders with an average unrealized loss of about 20%.

Darkfost wrote that it is too early to call a bottom based on the current scale of losses. In previous bear markets, average losses for active investors widened to 40% to 50%. A 20% loss is significant, but it does not yet match the undervalued conditions seen at past cycle bottoms.

He also said that in May, when Bitcoin rebounded to the average purchase price of active investors, many chose to exit the market without losses, turning that price range into resistance.

Darkfost added that despite inflows from institutional investors and spot exchange-traded funds, Bitcoin has not so far broken meaningfully from its historical cycles. Still, this cycle could rebound without falling into the 40% to 50% loss range seen in the past.