Bernstein Keeps $150,000 Year-End Bitcoin Target Despite 54% Drop From Peak
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bernstein maintained its year-end Bitcoin target of $150,000, arguing that the current pullback remains milder than declines seen at the end of past market cycles even after the token fell 54% from its peak.
Crypto news outlet The Block reported on July 6 that Gautam Chhugani's team at Bernstein wrote in a client note that Bitcoin has dropped about 54% from its October 2025 high of roughly $125,000. That compares with the 75% to 90% declines that marked the end of previous cycles. Bitcoin recently retested a low near $60,000 before rebounding to around $63,000, and was trading at about $62,600 as of July 6.
Bernstein also said the correction is now in its third quarter since the cycle peak. Historically, Bitcoin downturns have lasted 12 to 15 months, and the current correction has yet to reach that range. The firm added that it remains unclear whether the market has fully emerged from its downtrend.
The bank said capital flows have been steadier than sentiment. Net Bitcoin inflows from corporate treasury purchases and exchange-traded funds totaled $10 billion so far in 2026, down sharply from $60 billion in 2025. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted $5.5 billion in net outflows this year, but corporate buying led by Strategy has kept overall net inflows positive against an asset base of $74 billion, Bernstein said.
Bernstein also dismissed concerns over selling pressure from Strategy. The company spent about $17.5 billion in 2026 to buy an additional 175,000 Bitcoin, bringing total holdings to 847,363 Bitcoin. Its debt amounts to about 13% of the collateral value of its Bitcoin holdings, with the next principal repayment of about $1 billion due in the third quarter of 2028, the note said. Strategy also has enough liquidity to cover dividends and interest payments for more than 17 months, reducing the risk of large forced sales. Even so, Bernstein said the company has left open the possibility of selling as much as $1.25 billion of Bitcoin to fund dividend and interest payments, replenish dollar reserves and support share buybacks.
Bernstein said another variable to watch is the retreat of major US Bitcoin miners. The bank expects US-listed miners to abandon Bitcoin mining entirely as they shift toward AI data centers, with miners in Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Latin America absorbing their share of network hash rate. Average network hash rate has fallen about 11% this year.
The bank also cited an improving regulatory backdrop as a positive factor. Discussions are under way on implementation rules for the GENIUS Act, a stablecoin regulatory bill, and perpetual crypto futures trading is being rolled out in the US through Kalshi and Coinbase. The market for tokenized real-world assets has reached a record $52 billion. Bernstein said its $150,000 year-end target looks ambitious given the current correction, but added that the cycle will eventually turn and that it is continuing to watch for signs of recovery in Bitcoin fund flows.
