Bitcoin Threatens $60,000 Support as US-Iran War Risk, Strategy Sales Add Pressure
Summary
- Bitcoin is threatening the $60,000 support level, with selling pressure building.
- Strategy's $216 million Bitcoin sale and the risk of additional selling pressure are worsening market sentiment.
- A surge in oil prices, a rising probability of a September rate hike, and tighter crypto regulation in India are weighing on Bitcoin amid broader global macro and regulatory risks.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin is threatening the $60,000 support level. Selling pressure is building as escalating US-Iran war risk, Bitcoin sales by Strategy and signs of tighter crypto regulation in India weigh on sentiment.
Cointelegraph reported on July 8 that Bitcoin fell 3.5% and failed to rebound from around $62,000. While the Nasdaq index recouped part of its losses, Bitcoin did not stage a similar recovery, highlighting its relative weakness.
A jump in oil prices has weakened expectations for lower interest rates. Brent crude rose to $74 from $68 a week earlier after the US struck Iranian nuclear-related facilities and President Donald Trump formally scrapped a US-Iran memorandum of understanding. Higher energy costs are adding to inflation pressure and lowering the chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut. CME FedWatch data showed the probability of a September rate hike rose to 69% from 42% a month earlier.
Strategy's Bitcoin sales also worsened market sentiment. The company disclosed that it sold $216 million of Bitcoin earlier in July. Investor concerns grew after the sale was confirmed to have been separate from a previously disclosed $1.25 billion monetization program. Strategy faces $1.76 billion in annual dividend payments and holds more than $3.8 billion of convertible bonds with call options exercisable before April 2027, fueling concern that additional selling pressure could persist.
Global macro jitters have also intensified. Japan's 10-year government bond yield climbed to its highest level in 30 years. Concerns over central bank independence grew after the Japanese government showed signs of seeking changes to the Bank of Japan's policy targets. Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries, and instability in its bond market could ripple across global financial markets. Trade tensions also resurfaced after Trump called for a trade cutoff with Spain at a NATO summit.
Regulatory risks have also come into focus. An internal document showed that India's central bank strongly supports a policy that would completely block banks' exposure to virtual assets. India's tax authority also formally warned about the risk of tax evasion through crypto assets.
