Bitcoin Rebounds to One-Month High, With $68,000 Seen as Key Resistance
Summary
- Bitcoin has rebounded about 15% from its early-July low, but whether it can break through the $68,000 resistance level remains the key variable.
- The average entry price for investors over the past five months is clustered around $68,000, meaning selling by holders seeking to recoup losses could create overhead supply pressure.
- US spot Bitcoin ETF flows have turned modestly positive, but weak institutional participation and spot trading volume suggest the recovery is not yet complete.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin has rebounded to its highest level in more than a month, but analysts say the next move higher will depend on whether it can clear resistance at $68,000.
CoinDesk reported on July 21 that Bitcoin rose above $66,000, rebounding about 15% from its early-July low. In its latest market report, Bitfinex called the $68,000 area the key resistance zone that will determine whether the rebound can continue.
The level is significant because it aligns with the average entry price of investors who bought Bitcoin over the past five months. Citing on-chain data provider Glassnode, Bitfinex said investors who have been sitting on losses may treat a return to breakeven as a chance to sell, creating overhead supply pressure. The $68,000 mark also overlaps with the prior peak before Bitcoin's mid-June rebound lost steam and the token plunged below $58,000. Bitfinex added that the market is likely to see a strong reaction on the first retest of that resistance zone.
Still, Bitfinex said it is detecting signs that market conditions are gradually improving. A shift in US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds from persistent outflows to modest inflows is a positive development. Even so, overall demand — including purchases by corporate Bitcoin treasury strategy firms such as Strategy (STR) — remains well below levels seen earlier this year. The firm said the recovery is not yet complete.
K33 Research offered a similar assessment. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, said institutional participation continues to decline and open interest in CME Bitcoin futures has fallen to its lowest level since 2023. Spot trading volume has also stayed weak. Bitcoin trading volume over the past 30 days was just 62% of the annual average, while average daily spot volume over the past week was about $2.3 billion, near the lowest level of the year.
Lunde said the market appears to be repeating the cryptocurrency sector's typical summer pattern. ETF flows have stabilized after large redemptions in May and June, but buying interest has yet to return in force.
