Summary
- Rising military tensions between the US and Iran pushed Bitcoin below $65,000, while international oil prices and US Treasury yields surged.
- Based on CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 0.25 percentage-point rate increase at the July FOMC approached 40%, indicating that inflation expectations and interest rates are rising again.
- Michaël van de Poppe said the $64,073 SMA is a key support level, and that a break above resistance at $68,000 could lift Bitcoin to $73,000, leaving room for higher prices in the short term.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin fell below $65,000 as military tensions between the US and Iran intensified. International oil prices climbed above $100 a barrel, while US Treasury yields surged.
Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin fell to as low as $64,799 on Bitstamp on July 23, the lowest intraday level in three days. Risk assets broadly came under pressure after President Donald Trump issued a warning directly targeting Iran over Houthi attacks on Saudi commercial vessels.
US stocks also declined. The S&P 500 closed down 1.2%, while the Nasdaq fell 2.2%. Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel, its highest since early June.
The Kobeissi Letter wrote on X that inflation expectations and interest rates are climbing rapidly again. CME Group's FedWatch tool showed the probability of a 0.25 percentage-point rate increase at the Federal Open Market Committee's July meeting approaching 40% on July 23, up from about 12% a week earlier. The Kobeissi Letter also said the yield on the 10-year US Treasury hit its highest level in 18 months.
Traders were split on the near-term outlook. Market analyst Exitpump said July's rebound is entering its final stage and prices are sitting at resistance. It would consider a short position if Bitcoin breaks below $65,000. Trader Yelle, by contrast, maintained that the market still has room to move toward $70,000.
Cryptocurrency trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe identified the simple moving average, or SMA, at $64,073 as a key support level on July 21. He said higher prices are possible in the short term as long as Bitcoin holds above that line. A break above resistance at $68,000 could send it to $73,000.
