Bitcoin Realized Losses Top 2022 Peak by 19%, but Selling Pressure Has Eased
Summary
- On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. said the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin realized losses peaked 19% above the 2022 high and has now cooled by 56%.
- He said the 30-day moving average of realized profits has fallen 92.7% from December 2025, showing a slower recovery than the decline in losses, and that it would need to stay above $400 million to $500 million to signal a recovery in demand.
- Adler added that the realized profit-to-loss ratio has recovered to 0.43 but remains well below 1.0, and that market stress could intensify if Bitcoin falls back below $58,535.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin’s realized losses climbed to a record in February, but loss-driven selling pressure has since dropped by more than half, according to an analysis from on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr.
In a newsletter published on July 24, Adler wrote that the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin realized losses peaked 19% above the 2022 high and has since cooled by 56%.
The 30-day moving average of daily realized Bitcoin losses reached $1.37 billion on Feb. 20, marking the peak, Adler said. That was 19% above the previous cycle high of $1.15 billion recorded on June 30, 2022.
Realized losses now stand at $597 million, down 56.5% from the February peak. Adler wrote that capitulation-driven selling pressure has weakened sharply since then, though it is still too early to conclude that demand is recovering on a sustained basis.
The rebound in realized profits has been limited as well. The 30-day moving average of daily realized Bitcoin profits has fallen 92.7% to $257 million from $3.51 billion on Dec. 10, 2025. While that is a 34.7% rebound from the June 14 low of $191 million, the recovery has been slower than the decline in losses.
Adler said realized profits would need to rise consistently above $400 million to $500 million for the move to signal a recovery in demand rather than a simple rebound from the bottom.
The realized profit-to-loss ratio also remains below the equilibrium line. The ratio recovered to 0.43 after falling to 0.26 at the June low, but it remains well below 1.0. A reading below 1.0 means realized losses are exceeding realized profits.
Adler wrote that nominal realized losses in the current cycle were larger than in 2022, but relative market stress was less severe. In 2022, the realized profit-to-loss ratio fell as low as 0.13.
Even so, he said it was too early to conclude that the capitulation phase is fully over. Bitcoin remains 47.8% below its all-time high, and realized losses have exceeded realized profits on 190 of the 291 days since the October 2025 peak.
He added that realized losses could widen again and market stress could intensify if Bitcoin falls back below the June low of $58,535.
