Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bernstein cut its price target for Circle, the issuer of the USDC dollar stablecoin, while maintaining its broader growth outlook.
The Block reported on July 29 that Bernstein lowered its target to $140 from $190, a cut of more than 26%, on the view that Circle’s second-quarter results will be broadly flat. Even after the reduction, the new target implies about 118% upside from the current share price of roughly $64.
Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating, arguing that the market has overstated the threat from OpenUSD. The OpenUSD consortium, launched last month with more than 140 payments, financial and fintech companies including Visa, Mastercard and Stripe, had pressured Circle shares.
As a counterpoint, Bernstein said Circle has been signing individual memorandums of understanding with consortium participants. It also pointed to comments from a Samsung official saying there had been no formal discussions related to OpenUSD and that the company’s role remained unclear, raising questions about the group’s cohesion. Visa executives, meanwhile, said on a recent earnings call that the company would keep a multi-coin, multi-chain strategy rather than rely on a single stablecoin.
Still, a revenue-sharing agreement with Hyperliquid is weighing on profitability. In May, Circle and Coinbase agreed to allocate about 90% of the reserve income generated from Circle deposits on Hyperliquid to the platform.
That means Hyperliquid stands to receive about $190 million from Circle’s annual reserve income of $210 million. The agreement will begin to directly affect Circle’s earnings in the third quarter.
Bernstein also cut its year-end forecast for Circle supply to $83 billion, down about 37% from its previous estimate, to reflect weakness in the crypto market. It lowered its 2028 forecast by about 40% to $170 billion.
The bank left its long-term growth outlook unchanged. Bernstein projects total stablecoin supply will reach $4 trillion by 2035 and expects Circle to account for about 30% of the global stablecoin market by then.
