Democrats Lead Republicans by 8 Points With Fewer Than 100 Days Until US Midterms

Democrats hold an 8-percentage-point lead over Republicans with fewer than 100 days left until the US midterm elections in November, according to a new poll.

CNN reported on July 30 that its survey with pollster SSRS found 48% support for Democrats and 40% for Republicans.

Among respondents who said they would definitely vote, Democrats led Republicans by 20 percentage points.

Democrats also held a 10-point advantage over Republicans on which party better represents change. Republicans had led by 7 points on that measure in the spring of last year, but Democrats have since moved ahead.

The results appear to reflect voter dissatisfaction with Congress. More than half of respondents said Congress would benefit if most incumbent lawmakers were replaced in this election. CNN reported that figure was higher than it was just before the 2006 midterm elections, when Democrats retook the House.

If Democrats win back the House in this year's midterms, President Donald Trump could face significant difficulty in governing.

Seventy percent of Democratic-leaning voters said their vote in this election would express opposition to Trump.

By contrast, 41% of Republican-leaning voters said their vote would be meant to show support for Trump.

The poll also indicated that Trump's influence within the Republican Party has weakened. Among Republican supporters, 56% said Trump had a positive effect on the party, down 11 percentage points from 67% at the start of this year.

Voters' views on support for Israel also showed a sharp partisan divide.

A majority of Democratic-leaning respondents said they could accept a nominee who supports reducing aid to Israel, while Republican-leaning respondents were more resistant.

The survey was conducted over five days from July 23 among 1,225 US adults. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Ko Jung-sam, Hankyung.com reporter jsk@hankyung.com