Bitcoin Stalls at $64,000 as Analysts See Grinding Bottom Formation
Summary
- As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to stall near $64,000, several analysis firms say the market may be forming a bottom through exhaustion rather than a sharp plunge.
- On-chain signals including the sell-side exhaustion indicator, the shift of long-dormant coins into cold storage, and a jump in active supply are being interpreted as signs similar to past bottoming zones.
- Despite net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, demand remains weak because of institutional holders cutting positions and posting large net sales in recent quarters and a sharp drop in upside implied volatility in the options market.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin is struggling to find direction near $64,000, and several market analysis firms say the token may be forming a bottom through exhaustion rather than a sharp selloff.
The Block reported on August 5 that Bitcoin barely moved near $64,000 on August 4 even as US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $211.5 million of net inflows and the S&P 500 hit a record 7,737. Spot Ether ETFs drew $53.8 million the same day.
Jasper De Maere, an OTC trader at market maker Wintermute, said the marginal buyer in the spot market is not simply putting on long positions. For the rebound narrative to remain intact, Bitcoin needs to break decisively above $65,000 in the near term.
Glassnode called Bitcoin's stagnation this week the market's central puzzle. While global equities pushed to record highs, Bitcoin was little changed and lagged the S&P 500 by more than 4 percentage points. The firm also said there was no meaningful spot selling pressure even after 594 Bitcoin, worth about $38 million, was stolen from a Coldcard hardware wallet on July 31. In the three days after the theft, about 119,000 Bitcoin that had been dormant long term became active again, but the coins moved to new cold storage rather than exchanges.
Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, said Bitcoin's seven-day active supply rose to about 890,000 Bitcoin after the incident, the highest level of 2026. Historically, such spikes have tended to cluster near short-term tops or bottoms.
Signs of a bottom are gradually building. Glassnode's sell-side exhaustion indicator has fallen to the lowest level of this cycle and entered the range where every previous bottom formed. Bitfinex analysts said about 155,000 Bitcoin was accumulated between $62,000 and $65,000, creating the largest on-chain cost-basis concentration zone. As of August 2, 54.6% of total supply was in profit, leaving the average holder effectively near break-even, a condition that has historically pointed to a bottom rather than a cycle breakdown.
Demand, however, remains weak. Glassnode said the buyers that drove institutional demand over the past two years, including US spot ETFs and corporate treasury departments, reduced their holdings over the past quarter. In June alone, they were net sellers of about 65,800 Bitcoin, the largest monthly net outflow on record.
The options market has also stopped making directional bets. Glassnode said call-buying demand had faded, pushing upside implied volatility down to around 23%, a record low. Wintermute estimated Bitcoin's one-day straddle-implied move for Wednesday expiry at 1.01%, implying a trading range of $63,454 to $64,749.
Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said easing geopolitical risks, fading expectations for interest-rate increases and strong corporate earnings are all supporting demand for risk assets. Attention is now turning to the US jobs report. The probability of a September Federal Reserve rate increase has fallen to about 60% from 100% just before last week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
