Dollar-Won Falls to 10-Month Intraday Low; Brokers See 1,300s on US Intervention

Dollar-won touches its lowest intraday level in about 10 months

Brokerages see a move into the 1,300-won range in the second half

The dollar-won exchange rate fell to its lowest intraday level in about 10 months on August 6 as exporters continued to sell dollars and tensions in the Middle East eased somewhat.

The won opened at 1,423.0 per dollar at 6 a.m. and strengthened to 1,414.5 by 11:07 a.m. That marked the dollar's lowest intraday level against the won since October 2, 2025, when it traded at 1,399.5. The pair later moved back above 1,420 in the afternoon as importers bought dollars for settlement and demand rose for foreign-stock related currency exchanges.

The won's gains were driven largely by a partial easing in geopolitical tension in the Middle East.

The Wall Street Journal reported a day earlier that Iran and Oman were finalizing a draft 60-day temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Esmaeil Baghaei, a spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry, said on August 6 that the two sides had agreed on the geographic coordinates of the proposed shipping route. A joint statement between the countries is under review and in the final stages.

Oil prices showed no clear direction. Brent futures, the global benchmark, settled 0.1% higher on ICE Futures Europe in London, while West Texas Intermediate futures closed 0.7% lower on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Support for the won also came from expectations that the US is putting more weight behind stabilizing Asian currencies, including the yen.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC a day earlier that when the yen becomes excessively weak, other currencies tend to weaken as well, explaining why the US government had recently stepped in directly to defend Japan's currency.

"A stable yen is very important not only for the US but for the broader Asian economy," he said. "A weak yen can trigger competitive currency devaluation, and that is not healthy."

Bessent also said the US had seen excessive volatility in the Korean won and that many people believe the Chinese yuan is undervalued. His remarks suggested yen weakness could have a knock-on effect on other Asian currencies, including the won.

After those comments, the dollar-won rate turned lower in overnight trading on August 4. On August 5, the pair extended its decline by as much as 8 won.

US foreign-exchange authorities had earlier intervened several times in the New York market starting on July 31 by selling euros and buying yen to support Japan's currency. On the same day, Reuters published a photograph of a notepad at a US federal cabinet meeting showing the words "Buy $5B-$10B Japanese Yen (JPY)" near Bessent's seat.

Analysts said the dollar-won rate could temporarily move into the 1,300-won range in the second half of the year.

Park Sang-hyun, an analyst at iM Securities, said both the dollar-yen and dollar-won rates could fall further given the US government's willingness to intervene aggressively in currency markets and improving domestic dollar supply-and-demand conditions. He said the dollar-won pair could move into the 1,300-won range if the dollar-yen rate falls into the 155-yen range, citing a strengthening correlation between the won and yen.

Moon Da-woon, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, said foreign-exchange demand could concentrate in August as companies prepare interim corporate tax prepayments. If a US economic slowdown becomes more pronounced, the lower end of the trading range could fall further, leaving room for the dollar-won rate to enter the 1,300-won range in the second half, she added.

Noh Jeong-dong, Hankyung.com reporter dong2@hankyung.com