Quantum Hackers May Target Exchanges, Stablecoin Wallets Before Satoshi's, CEO Says
Summary
- Quantum computers could attack exchanges or stablecoin issuer wallets before Satoshi’s wallet if they break current encryption technology.
- Attackers could derive private keys from public keys alone and steal assets, while leaving little evidence of a breach compared with conventional hacks.
- Smith said the most valuable key on a blockchain may be Tether’s USDT minting key, not Satoshi’s wallet, and put the odds of a post-quantum cryptography transition before 2028 at 50%.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
If so-called Q-day becomes reality and quantum computers break current encryption, wallets held by exchanges or stablecoin issuers could come under attack before the Bitcoin linked to Satoshi Nakamoto, Cointelegraph reported on August 10.
Christopher Smith, co-founder and chief executive officer of Quantus Network, said sufficiently powerful quantum computers could derive private keys from public keys alone and steal assets. Unlike conventional hacks, such breaches may leave little sign of intrusion.
“If someone cracks your private key, it doesn’t leave behind a message telling you how the attack happened,” Smith said. At institutions with strong security, the lack of any clear trace of compromise could itself be the only clue.
The market has long worried that Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin, estimated at about 1.1 million BTC, would be among the first assets threatened by quantum computing. But Smith said attackers would more likely go after targets with greater economic value, such as exchange hot wallets or administrator wallets with the authority to issue Tether’s USDT.
“The most valuable key on a blockchain may not be Satoshi’s wallet but Tether’s minting key,” he said. “If someone stole it, they could issue new tokens and sell them into the market.”
Sean Cheatham, a security researcher at Blockchain Capital, also said attackers would be more likely to target exchange hot wallets than Satoshi-linked wallets that draw broad market attention. Smith added that attackers could disguise a quantum-computing breach as a standard private-key leak, masking the use of quantum technology.
Views differ on when Q-day could arrive. Google said in March that improvements in quantum algorithm efficiency, aided by artificial intelligence, led it to bring forward its target date for a transition to post-quantum cryptography to 2029.
Smith said there is a 50% chance quantum computers could break existing public-key cryptography before 2028, given the pace of AI advances. Cheatham, by contrast, put the more realistic timeline in the early 2030s.
