Bitcoin at $1 Million by 2030 Is Mathematically Impossible, 10x Research Says

Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030 is realistically impossible, according to an analysis cited by Cointelegraph on Aug. 15.

In an interview, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said forecasts calling for Bitcoin to hit $1 million by 2030 are "mathematically impossible."

As of 10:40 p.m., Bitcoin traded at $62,976, up 0.55% from a day earlier, according to CoinMarketCap. That means the token would need to climb more than 15-fold from current levels to reach $1 million.

Thielen estimated that roughly $15 trillion of additional inflows would be needed over the next four years to make that happen. He said that would amount to about 25% of the entire U.S. stock market's value.

Over the past 15 years, about $1 trillion in inflows helped lift Bitcoin's market capitalization to roughly $1 trillion, he said. Driving the price materially higher from here would require capital in the trillions of dollars.

That, he added, is why 10x Research is less bullish than some optimists. Their thesis is mathematically unrealistic once the amount of capital required is taken into account.

Thielen also said Bitcoin may find it harder to deliver gains at the pace seen in the past as its market capitalization grows. With the asset now much larger, far more money is needed to push prices higher. He said it is difficult to expect Bitcoin to set a new all-time high next year, and added that even a return to $100,000 would be a significant achievement.