Bitcoin Reclaims Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, Exiting Capitulation Phase
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin has reclaimed the average cost basis of short-term holders, signaling it has emerged from a capitulation phase and entered a transition period, according to a CryptoQuant analysis.
CryptoQuant contributor Crazzyblockk wrote on Aug. 24 that Bitcoin surged from the low-$60,000 range to about $77,000 in five trading days, retaking the short-term holder realized price, or STH Realized Price, of $67,000 to $69,000. Bitcoin traded below that range throughout July, leaving many recent buyers in the red. It moved back above the band on Aug. 19 and Aug. 20, the first change in market direction since May.
Selling by long-term holders also remained limited. As Bitcoin fell to about $59,700 in June, the long-term holder realized price, or LTH Realized Price, held near $49,200. Compared with past examples at the same stage of the cycle, the drop in the long-term holder realized price was smaller, suggesting there was no structural wave of heavy selling by long-term holders.
Bitcoin has now climbed to around the True Market Mean Price of about $76,500. Above that is the Active Realized Price at about $83,800. The short-term holder +0.5 standard deviation band is also near $83,000. If Bitcoin breaks above that level, the next major price band would be the untested +1 standard deviation level around $98,000.
Still, the rebound does not necessarily signal an immediate shift into a full bull market. Sharp early gains after a prolonged correction can be driven more by leverage liquidations and short covering than by sustained spot buying. Profit-taking by short-term holders could add to the pressure, leaving volatility elevated for now.
The next key test is whether the $67,000 to $69,000 short-term holder realized price range can hold as support. Crazzyblockk wrote that even if Bitcoin retests that band, a structural trend reversal would be confirmed only if support holds and the token then recovers the one-year holder realized price at about $104,800. Bitcoin has exited the capitulation phase and entered a volatile transition stage, with further gains possible but the path unlikely to be smooth.
