Bitcoin Enters New Bull Market as $83,000 Break Looms as Final Confirmation
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin has entered a new bull-market phase after surging 24% in a week, according to a CryptoQuant analysis.
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's head of research, wrote in an Aug. 25 report that Bitcoin has climbed 24% since Aug. 17, marking a shift into a new market regime. Valuation, demand and liquidity indicators have all turned bullish.
The rally was driven by U.S. fiscal and policy developments. The Treasury said it would double its long-term Treasury buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation starting Sept. 9. President Donald Trump also signaled the possibility of government Bitcoin purchases, helping Bitcoin reclaim $80,000 for the first time since May 15.
On-chain indicators also point to a bullish turn. CryptoQuant's Bull Score jumped to 80 from 30 in a week, the highest level since Oct. 6 last year, when Bitcoin traded at $124,000. Eight of the indicator's 10 components are now signaling a bull market.
Demand is also recovering quickly. Bitcoin's apparent spot demand is posting its fastest monthly increase since late December last year, and demand in both spot and futures markets is expanding at the same time for the first time since early October last year. Based on those trends, Moreno said Bitcoin has entered the early stages of a new bull market. Still, a daily close above the 365-day moving average, now near $83,000, is needed to formally confirm the shift.
Short-term overheating signals remain a risk. Traders' unrealized profit margin has risen to 20.5%, the highest since June last year. Realized profits by whale investors also reached a record daily high of $614 million on Aug. 20. Rising exchange inflows of Bitcoin, Ether and XRP also suggest short-term profit-taking pressure may build.
