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Bitcoin Tests $80,000 Ahead of Jackson Hole as Resistance Builds
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin climbed back toward $80,000 on inflows into spot exchange-traded funds and on-chain accumulation, but the rally is being tested again near that level as inflation concerns and caution ahead of Jackson Hole keep sellers active.
Traders are watching $81,000 to $83,000 as the key resistance band. A break below $77,000, by contrast, could weaken momentum in the latest rebound.
As of 6:33 p.m. on Aug. 28, Bitcoin was trading at $79,456 on Binance's USDT market, down about 0.41% from a day earlier. On Upbit, it was changing hands at about 109.8 million won, or roughly $79,700. The kimchi premium, which measures the price gap between overseas and South Korean exchanges, was about 0.87%.
Nvidia Lift Fails to Revive Risk Appetite as Jackson Hole, Oil Risks Loom
Global technology stocks advanced after Nvidia reported strong results, but broader appetite for risk assets has yet to recover in earnest. Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and caution ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting are keeping the crypto market in wait-and-see mode.
Qatar's Foreign Ministry and other sources said Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani visited Iran on Aug. 27 to discuss a temporary joint shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz and plans to remove naval mines. The US and Iran remain far apart on restoring normal passage through the strait. Iran is demanding the revival of a previous memorandum of understanding as a condition for reopening the route, while the US has rejected restarting talks and continues economic pressure on Tehran.
Inflation is also still a burden. The US personal consumption expenditures price index for July, released on Aug. 26, rose 3.7% from a year earlier, while core PCE increased 3.3%, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. If inflation proves slower to cool, the Fed may keep policy tight for longer and long-term yields may remain elevated.
Markets are now focused on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote, scheduled for 11 p.m. Korea time on Aug. 28. It will be his first Jackson Hole appearance since taking office. Investors are watching how he assesses inflation that remains above target and higher long-term Treasury yields. His view on the US Treasury Department's expanded bond buybacks, aimed at stabilizing long-term rates, is also in focus. The speech could reshape expectations for the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting and sentiment toward risk assets.
CME FedWatch data showed interest-rate futures were pricing in a 66.2% chance the Fed will hold rates steady in September and a 33.8% chance of a hike. Nvidia's earnings helped revive sentiment in tech stocks, but markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to the Fed's message until uncertainty over rates and oil prices eases.
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Post Nine Straight Days of Inflows as Overheating Signs Stay Limited
US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged net inflows for nine straight trading days from Aug. 17 through Aug. 27. Cumulative net inflows over that stretch totaled $3.0442 billion. Policy optimism strengthened after President Donald Trump signaled support for advancing the CLARITY Act and mentioned the possibility of government crypto purchases. Expectations that Treasury buybacks could help stabilize long-term yields also supported sentiment.
The rebound began with large-scale short liquidations, with ETF inflows helping extend the move, according to some market analysis. Glassnode said the largest single-day short liquidation since 2019 occurred on Aug. 19, with 85% of total liquidations during the rebound concentrated in short positions. During the rebound, US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $2.23 billion, the strongest inflow pace of the year, it added.
Glassnode said Bitcoin moved off exchanges during the rebound and buying expanded beyond large holders to smaller investors. That suggests the rally, which began with short covering, broadened into accumulation across the holder base and widened its demand support.
Price gains, however, have not been matched by investor sentiment, according to on-chain analytics firm Santiment. Bitcoin surged from about $62,800 on Aug. 16 to about $78,900 on Aug. 26, but Santiment's sentiment gauge slipped back into negative territory.
Strong rallies typically coincide with rising optimism. This time, signs of overheating remain limited relative to the size of the move.
Bitcoin Battles at $80,000 With $83,000 Seen as Near-Term Pivot
As Bitcoin rebounds toward $80,000, traders are watching whether it can break through supply clustered in the low-$80,000 range. After the recent surge, the market is also monitoring whether key support levels can hold.
From a technical standpoint, $81,700 stands out as a key resistance level. Market analyst Julien Pineda said it is the most important upside barrier above the psychological $80,000 threshold, and failure to clear it could trigger a short-term pullback. On the downside, $73,600 and $67,300 are the main support zones. Pineda said $67,300 is a critical floor, and a drop to that area could undermine confidence in the recent rebound and push Bitcoin back into a range-bound pattern.
Bitfinex also identified the low-$80,000 area as a near-term pivot. The exchange said a move above the May intraday high of $82,818, confirmed by two straight daily closes, alongside continued ETF inflows, would point to further upside. A renewed rejection in the low-$80,000 range on rising volume, by contrast, could sap momentum from the rebound.
On the downside, the $77,100 to $77,800 band is the near-term line of defense. Bitfinex said the rebound structure could remain intact if Bitcoin holds that zone even after the Jackson Hole speech and options expiration.
Some analysts also see a broader breakout taking shape as Bitcoin completes its base-building phase. Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, said Bitcoin has emerged from oversold territory but has not yet entered an overheated zone. Short-term momentum is strong, and the medium-term trend has improved since the lows. She said the basing pattern that began in June was completed after another retest of the lows last month and that Bitcoin is now breaking out of its trading range. Stockton also cited Bitcoin's move above the 200-day moving average, which acted as resistance in May, as a positive sign. She said Bitcoin may sustain its advance longer than gold. In the near term, though, the key test for the rally is whether it can clear supply in the low-$80,000 range after the Jackson Hole speech.
Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io
