Summary
- Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase near $78,000 after rising 24% in August.
- Rising global oil prices, higher US Treasury yields, and firmer expectations for a September rate hike are weighing on risk appetite.
- While demand for US spot Bitcoin ETFs is supporting prices, the market is watching the end of the ETF inflow streak, resistance near $82,000, and the possibility of a retest of $77,200.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin steadied near $78,000 after surging 24% last month, with higher crude prices and rising US Treasury yields capping further gains.
CoinDesk reported on Sept. 1 that Bitcoin traded slightly above $78,400 during Asian hours. It has moved between $77,200 and $79,200 over the past 24 hours, showing limited volatility. Bitcoin rose 24% in August, its strongest monthly gain since November 2024.
Major altcoins were mostly weaker. Ether traded slightly above $2,440, while Solana hovered near $104, with both down about 1%. XRP changed hands below $1.40, and BNB traded around $693. Hyperliquid's HYPE token bucked the trend, rising about 4% to around $84.
Higher oil prices and Treasury yields have emerged as headwinds for digital assets. Following US military action near the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude rose about 1% to around $91 a barrel. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury climbed to 4.78%, pressuring sentiment toward risk assets.
Expectations for a September rate increase have strengthened sharply since Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. Markets are pricing about a 64% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's Sept. 16 meeting, up from roughly 36% before the speech. The US August jobs report due on Sept. 4 is the key data point before the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Spot-driven demand is still supporting Bitcoin prices, according to some market participants. Yusuf Pakhro, a partner at ARP Digital, said it mattered more that Bitcoin had held near $78,000 even after a 23% rally than the rally itself. He added that perpetual futures open interest has fallen to its lowest level since May, while US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted their strongest weekly demand since October 2025.
Still, momentum in ETF flows has faded. Wintermute said US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew a combined $924 million over nine straight trading sessions, but the streak ended with a $202 million outflow on Aug. 28. Bitcoin has also repeatedly tried to break above $82,000, only to run into resistance each time.
Jasper De Maere, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute, said the market remains tense but lacks clear short-term direction. Traders are watching whether a stronger-than-expected August jobs report could lift Treasury yields further and send Bitcoin back to test its recent low of $77,200.
