Bitcoin Drops Back Below $80,000 as Strong US Jobs Data Lift September Rate-Hike Bets
Summary
- August US employment data beat market forecasts, pushing Bitcoin back below $80,000.
- Markets priced in higher odds of a September rate hike at the FOMC meeting on Sept. 16, increasing selling pressure across risk assets.
- Sygnum Bank added that while strong data support hawkish views, factors such as stablecoin supply also influence the digital-asset market.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin fell back below $80,000 after US employment data for August came in well above market expectations. The stronger report renewed expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, adding selling pressure across risk assets.
According to Bloomberg on Sept. 4, Bitcoin fell as much as 2.8% to $79,197 after the US jobs report was released. US stocks and bond prices also declined, while the two-year Treasury yield rose and the dollar strengthened.
US nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, beating all estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, unchanged from the previous month. After the stronger-than-expected employment data, markets are again assigning higher odds to a rate increase at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Sept. 16.
Bitcoin had recovered $80,000 a day earlier after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he could support leaving rates unchanged if disinflation continues. Lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar helped support the move. But the stronger jobs data quickly wiped out those gains.
Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, said a clear rebound in employment does not end the rate debate, but it does bolster hawkish policymakers who favor tighter monetary policy. Strong data also support the market's current pricing for a higher probability of a September rate hike.
He added that the Treasury's cash balance, banks' ability to supply funding, private credit creation and stablecoin supply are also factors that can affect the digital-asset market, separate from the Fed's near-term rate decision.
